Whitehorse Daily Star

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Premier Darrell Pasloski and Liberal Leader Sandy Silver

YP ‘has guided economy straight into recession’

The Yukon’s economy has shrunk two years in a row, the only territory or province in the country with that dubious distinction, according to Statistics Canada.

By Christopher Reynolds on April 30, 2015

The Yukon’s economy has shrunk two years in a row, the only territory or province in the country with that dubious distinction, according to Statistics Canada.

The gross domestic product (GDP) fell 1.2 per cent to about $2 billion in 2014, nearly double the 2013 decline of 0.7 per cent – the worst drop of any jurisdiction that year.

Resource extraction nosedived 7.3 per cent, the newly released figures state.

The ongoing shutdown of the Bellekeno silver mine, shuttered in July 2013, contributed to the production doldrums.

Yukon Zinc’s Wolverine Mine also put its operations on hold earlier this year as it entered creditor protection, resulting in layoffs for most of its workforce and $4.3 million owed to dozens of Yukon companies.

It’s unclear how earlier operational slowdowns at the mine impacted Statistics Canada’s calculations for 2014.

The Minto copper-gold mine continues to produce at its underground site, but is still waiting for a water licence for its next open pit.

Liberal Leader Sandy Silver was quick to call out the government for the economy’s relatively feeble state.

“The Yukon Party loves to take credit when times are good and we’ll see if they are willing to take any responsibility for these latest numbers,” he said in a release Wednesday.

“This government’s continued court battles with First Nations over mineral development are only being further exacerbated by the premier’s amendments to Bill S-6.”

A slew of lawsuits over the past year and a half preceded threats of legal action by the Council of Yukon First Nations over a federal bill – likely to pass in the House of Commons this year – that would impact the territory’s environmental regulatory regime.

The legislation includes amendments – some recommended by the territory – that shift policy power over assessments away from an independent board and toward Ottawa and Whitehorse. Some argue it will be easier to renew or expand existing projects.

“With a forecast of more litigation on the horizon, I doubt that a rebound will happen in 2015,” Silver said.

“The Yukon Party needs to take leadership on our slowing economy, and stop publishing unrealistic economic forecasts,” he added.

In September 2013, a sunny economic forecast missed the mark with a prediction of nine-per-cent growth in 2014. Last January, an updated forecast still foresaw growth of one per cent, corrected with Statistics Canada’s negative numbers.

The forecasts are carried out by the Department of Economic Development rather than parties or politicians.

“Mining affects our entire territory,” Premier Darrell Pasloski said in the legislature Wednesday.

“That is why we are making the investments that we are right now ... so that we can be more ready when this downturn in the mining industry will uptake again.”

“This government has guided Yukon’s economy straight into recession,” NDP Leader Liz Hanson told the House yesterday.

The standard definition of recession comes into play when GDP falls for two consecutive quarters. More broadly it can be seen as “a period when GDP falls significantly below its potential rate,” according to The Economist magazine.

“Last year, the premier told Yukoners that this negative economic growth was a mere blip in 10 years of annual GDP growth.... Can the premier explain why he has blocked the tremendous potential of Yukon to the extent where Yukon was once a leader and we are now last in line?”

“This government has stated on many occasions that mining is indeed the cornerstone of this economy. The results of the latest GDP numbers reflect that,” Pasloski replied.

“This territory is truly the envy of this country because we have money in the bank ... allowing us to ensure that we’re not mortgaging the future to pay for debts today,” he added, noting the government’s history of budget surpluses under the Yukon Party.

A decade of economic growth under the Yukon Party ended in 2013.

“What I will take credit for is the $5.5 million that is going back into all Yukon taxpayers’ pockets this year and the increase in the Yukon child benefit by 35 per cent, supporting families with children,” the premier stated.

“This is a government that has just tabled the largest capital budget in Yukon’s history, putting Yukoners to work, keeping Yukoners at home, investing in infrastructure not only for today but for the long term.”

The Statistics Canada report noted construction declined nearly six per cent “with losses in residential building and engineering construction,” though non-residential building activity increased.

George Marchewa, the senior econometric analyst at Economic Development, told the Star that the 2013 construction slowdown was responsible for a hefty slice of last year’s economic stagnation.

He predicted that major projects like the new F.H. Collins Secondary School construction, with a budget well over $30 million, along with the new Alexander Street seniors’ facility – now completed – and Yukon Energy’s backup LNG generators would likely push construction numbers back up for 2014.

That activity apparently was not enough to compensate for the snail’s pace of residential building.

Newfoundland and Labrador was the only other province or territory to contract in 2014, shrinking 2.9 per cent.

Comments (26)

Up 0 Down 1

Northern Girl on May 6, 2015 at 7:52 pm

After being in the Yukon for 20+ years, my household has never been better off financially. I also know that the community that I live in has many young men and women working at good paying jobs. This certainly was not the case under previous governments. I have never voted conservative but that will change for the next territorial election.

Up 4 Down 0

Yter - can't sing and hard to write on May 6, 2015 at 1:27 pm

Yter, I am deft tone and have dyslexia so I can't sing and it's hard to write.
I get the singer thing a lot. You must be over 60 to know that. It is good for laugh.

Up 0 Down 3

YTer on May 6, 2015 at 11:57 am

There was a comment below by our old country music star buddy responding to my comment.
If he looked closely and paid attention, he would have seen the quotation marks, indicating it was a quote from the article above. Not made up by me, a direct quote. Crazy eh? Punctuation marks, so useful yet so sneaky. And by the looks of the comments, some individual sure has lots of time on their hands.

Up 8 Down 4

PC and Liberals made major mistakes and a strong progressive leader won WC on May 6, 2015 at 10:01 am

You have to hand it to the NDP leader in Alberta, she ran a very smart election program. Alberta needed change which is good.
PC has had 3 Dud leaders in a row so what do you expect. Now you will see her look a the tar sands from royalty and environmental perspective.
This will make investors concerned but she knows what she is doing. She will not spend public money to promote the two pipe lines.
She will raise corporate tax rate from 10 to 12% where it used to be under RC. She will take a broader view of the economy and try to change it as it should have been done 15 years ago.
She will have a major challenge with the budget. Her father was very smart and totally a different type of politician. He supported everyone in all parties.
Not this crap we see today.

Up 4 Down 0

Wow look at all the people that want Department of Economic Development cleaned out on May 6, 2015 at 7:01 am

Wow look at all the people that want the Department of Economic Development cleaned out.
Just people collecting pay cheques and continuously hire and fire staff that are strong and challenge management.

Up 35 Down 0

Come on Minister Hassard Remove the bad managing in economic development on May 5, 2015 at 4:19 pm

This department has some very weak management that has no knowledge of economic development and are doing nothing for the Yukon or its communities
Mr. Hassard step up and do like Minister Graham is doing!

Up 10 Down 4

Rorex1983 on May 5, 2015 at 10:24 am

For those not in the know, the Yukon Economy is funded first by federal transfers, second by the exporting of Natural Resources, and Third by Tourism.

In the past 2 years mineral prices have gone in the toilet, the US - Canada exchange rate was at or near par until late 2014, and the federal government has been decreasing its transfer amounts as well as removing some of its federal offices locally. So given this information no one should be surprised that we are in a recession. Furthermore no local government can control resource prices, exchange rates, or the federal government. We live in a global economy and are at the mercy of what happens elsewhere in the world.

In this particular case it was the recovery of the US economy, who is our major trading partner, accounts for the majority of our tourists, and as major trading partner is the country that funds our national GDP, that has affected our local economy. Why weren't other Canadian Jurisdictions as effected? Well most provinces produce goods and don't just export resources so the diversification of their sources of GDP leads to them being less affected. In particular its common for the production of goods to increase as the price of resources declines. Lower input costs, means lower price, means more demand.

Up 81 Down 1

Today's Excuse on May 5, 2015 at 10:11 am

Further to the comments about the top-heavy structure of the Dept of Ec Dev, it should be noted that those senior positions add up to 27 people. That's a lot of "supposedly" educated brains there. That is HALF of the whole department.

So, what the hell are they doing other than more studies? What the hell are they actually doing to get this economy going and to keep it going? Yes, I know. They go to all the Chamber luncheons and Business After Hours....free lunch, even free booze sometimes. Networking is so very important. Shouldn't they be networking with the entrepreneurs instead of just with themselves?

Why is there no business incubator here? Why is there no "seed" funding available for those who want to start a business but cannot get funding anywhere? Where are the incentives to start a business? Where are the tax breaks for those willing to take those risks?

Just what IS it that you do, Department of Economic Development?

PS There's more than just mining you know (and please don't get me started on THAT!).

Up 15 Down 8

Gimpsuit on May 4, 2015 at 3:07 pm

@Sandy Silver economics

Actually a recession is defined as a contraction in the GDP for six months (two consecutive quarters) or longer. NOT 2 years.

Up 35 Down 21

O yes look at Carcross and KDFN both working with the YPG to be economic partners on May 2, 2015 at 3:45 pm

Mr. Silver ask Alexco the silver producer how much silver is down and why they had to close their mine?
Look at Carcross and KDFN both working with the YPG to be economic partners in the Yukon economy.
So Mr. Silver you are disappointing a lot of people who believed in you by your lack of leadership and making dangerous statements that are not based on fact or evidence.
Mr. Silver why don't you step down and let a real leader take over and you go back to teaching your own brand of economic math.

Up 54 Down 22

Sandy Silver disappoints liberal members on the economy. on May 2, 2015 at 3:38 pm

Has anyone read Mr. Silvers other letters in this paper?
So let's make sure everyone gets the facts straight on the economy.
The Yukon is not in recession and no agency or economist has stated that.
The Yukon walked right through the 2009 recession and the rest of the world did not. The only region in Canada accept the western provinces.
Mr Silver has made some outlandish statement that just don't hold any water and leaks so bad the Yukon would sink if he's in power.
Mr Silver stated that mineral prices are going up by 27% but in fact they are down by over 50% from the high in 2011.
In his other letter he make statements that are embarrassing to the Liberal party.
Mr Silver states minerals prices go up because of more mines opening. My professor who thought me economic at STFXU in Antigonish that more supply drives down prices because of more competition.
What I really find interesting that you have a liberal and NDP acting like one and are so desperate for power they will say anything.

Up 29 Down 0

What's todays Excuse on May 2, 2015 at 3:12 pm

Great piece/comment you nailed it on the structure and results.

Up 18 Down 20

Groucho d'North on May 2, 2015 at 11:33 am

An election is pending, it’s easy to see by the rhetoric spewing from the mouths of the wanna-be leaders and their toadies. Mr. Silver’s assertions are nothing more than more criticisms to prepare the electorate for the whiz-bang economic solution he and his team are preparing to unveil within the next year. It will be in general terms with not much detail - platitudes more than anything I anticipate. They hope this perspective will vault the party into a leadership role once again. Lets’ hope their mastery of all things financial is better than the last time their party was steering the boat.

Up 113 Down 3

What's today's excuse? on May 2, 2015 at 10:02 am

Less than 60 people in that department.

Two Assistant Deputy Ministers (read: $175,000/yr), 3 Senior Economists (read: $120,000/yr), 14 "Senior" Advisors (read: $100,000/yr), 7 Directors (read: $125,000/yr). Just who are the "Seniors" senior when every position is titled "Senior"? (Read: Extra salary due to the "Senior" title).

Perhaps if they weren't so top heavy; perhaps if some of the money allocated to Economic Development actually went to developing a non-boom/bust economy instead of just paying over-inflated wages; perhaps if they stayed in the Yukon instead of travelling to China every year; perhaps if they stepped out of their pensionable cocoons and actually went out into the Yukon Economy instead of just to the nearest Starbucks and/or Baked coffee shops; perhaps if they quit slapping each other on the back and stopped kissing all those political asses....maybe, just maybe, there would be a real, vibrant, dynamic, sustainable economy here. Maybe.

Up 13 Down 1

Realist on May 1, 2015 at 8:14 pm

Really you cannot place a troop of cub-scouts with very little real world experience in charge of a 50 billion budget and expect that good will come of it.
Cripes, we still have one of the Watson Lake rejects supping at the public teat and contributing that what she did when she first got enabled with 50 votes.
Let's expect what we got.

Up 36 Down 3

north_of_60 on May 1, 2015 at 1:02 pm

Eighty five percent of the Yukon economy is transfer payments from the taxpayers of Canada. The only reason our economy is in a slump is because the YP isn't spending that generous gift wisely. Hoarding money to spend in an election year to buy votes is NOT prudent fiscal management. Most of the capital projects announced this year should have been tendered over the last couple of years.

Up 26 Down 5

Dawson on May 1, 2015 at 12:48 pm

For the poster below, how exactly does 'In Yukon, GDP fell 1.2% in 2014 following a 0.7% decline in 2013.' not equate to two years of minus growth?

That's a quote from the Statistics Canada release, April 28, 2015.

Up 23 Down 5

ok then on May 1, 2015 at 12:32 pm

Recession : a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters (not years). A fact with foundation.

Up 17 Down 31

Sandy Silver economics on May 1, 2015 at 9:52 am

Mr Silver recession means two years of no growth or minus growth.
Again as I stated to you in an email several minutes ago, you are making a statement with no foundation in fact but just hot air and you need to change if you want to win.
I am calling on this statement that described COW mayor's approach on the sport complex.
Dan is his own man but needs help like you and the NDP.

Up 31 Down 21

YTer are you stating GW implied that the YP held back projects until election year WC on May 1, 2015 at 9:43 am

Yter are you saying that GW implied that YP held back projects until election year?
Do not use employee names to make statements that are not correct or are so full of crap and damaging to people existences. Get a life whomever you are, because you don't have clue about an economy.

Up 29 Down 29

Salar on May 1, 2015 at 9:09 am

Folks get rid of this bunch of dreamers. Mining can happen and has, but it's so fickle you can't depend on it. Though you can depend on it to create false expectations and a false economy. Business in the Yukon depends on transfers and suffers when it hangs its hat on commodity pricing....YP is holding a bag of dough that would benefit business's in the Yukon. The NDP won't develop anything if they get elected, YP will not change, so looks like the Liberals are the only one's with reality in check (Federal cheque).

Up 27 Down 18

ProScience Greenie on Apr 30, 2015 at 6:34 pm

Seeing how we all can't have a sweet government job something has to be done so people can put food on the table and pay the rent or mortgage. Paz, Liz and Sandy don't get it. They've all been too busy tilting at ideological windmills like the Peel or fracking or idiotic bills in Ottawa to notice that things are tough out there and getting tougher. What's the point of all these Toronto-like subdivisions, half-full commercial space and mega-sports facilities if most Yukoners are living hand to mouth looking up online how to declare personal bankruptcy?

Someone please turn off the tap in Ottawa so we are forced to build a real economy free of conservative corporate welfare and socialist make believe and enviro pixie dust.

Up 37 Down 6

Hmmm on Apr 30, 2015 at 6:03 pm

Appointing inexperienced friends to key positions, deals made at the grocery store, golfing with buddies on leased land, lawsuits against anyone who disagrees, PSC out of control, what agreements? We didn't really mean those agreements, " you're not really a government" ... What do you expect, eventually it catches up to you and, apparently it has.

Up 81 Down 70

Sandy Silver recession King and not telling the tuth on Apr 30, 2015 at 4:10 pm

The Yukon is not in recession but has had 14 years of growth. What a farce statement by the liberals.

Up 64 Down 9

YTer on Apr 30, 2015 at 4:02 pm

"George Marchewa, the senior econometric analyst at Economic Development, told the Star that the 2013 construction slowdown was responsible for a hefty slice of last year’s economic stagnation."
The reason it was stagnating is that many capital projects were not put out to tender as the YP was waiting to put them all out during the election year. Local contractors know how this will effect them. Instead of slowly putting these projects out, they will release them all at once, and the bulk of the work will go to Southern firms.

Up 66 Down 38

June Jackson on Apr 30, 2015 at 3:21 pm

Anyone surprised? “This is a government that has just tabled the largest capital budget in Yukon’s history, putting Yukoners to work, keeping Yukoners at home, investing in infrastructure not only for today but for the long term.” Really Darryl? The facts are pointing otherwise.

Everyone has known all along that the Pas gov has not been spending public funds well or wisely. But that is just one of their many many failures..
Bring the elections on...I'm ready.

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