Weather warning out for White Pass, Chilkat Pass
It’s a tough job being a meteorologist at times.
It’s a tough job being a meteorologist at times.
A few weeks ago, staff at Environment Canada gave the Star a prediction that the autumn season was shaping up to be unremarkable.
Even with a La Niña forming, which typically results in colder-than-normal weather, the organization predicted the fall would be fairly ordinary.
In contrast to that, the forecasters at rival Accuweather were talking up the potential for a colder and snowier fall season than average.
In particular, Accuweather was confidently predicting earlier snow than normal due to the La Niña – a pool of colder-than-usual water in the Pacific Ocean.
After the last week, it appears as if those folks at Accuweather figuratively smelled the snow in the air.
The territory as a whole has been hit with earlier-than-expected snow since Sept. 21.
That weather, of course, has been interrupted periodically with some reasonably pleasant weather, but the streak of snow-filled days certainly has tongues wagging as it makes people unhappy.
Now, there’s a weather warning out today for the White Pass and Chilkat Pass regions around Carcross and Haines Junction.
Fifteen centimetres or more of snow are possible in the high passes, Philippe-Alain Bergeron of Environment Canada said Thursday.
He said the entire west coast of Canada and the United States has been hit hard recently by a rapid transition between summer and fall weather.
Warm water-saturated air from the Pacific has been steaming across the mountains and hitting the cooler air of the Yukon, he said. That’s mostly what accounts for the on-and-off snowfall for the last 10 days.
While the snowfall isn’t unprecedented by any means, it is unusual, Bergeron said.
Extended forecasts show the unsettled weather will persist for possibly as long as another week before clearing, but then colder weather moves in.
“It’s been a very active pattern for the last few weeks,” Bergeron said.
“There’s a storm coming in, and the winds are likely to be a problem.”
Bergeron said “downslope” winds will confine the bulk of the snow to the high passes in today’s storm.
Whitehorse, however, was expected to see a high of 10 C today, precluding more snow.
“This storm and weather pattern is a bit like a chinook,” Bergeron said.
He downplayed the notion of Environment Canada’s seasonal forecast being off as compared to Accuweather’s.
“A seasonal forecast is very challenging,” he said. “The only way to know if it’s going to be accurate is to wait until the season is finished. It’s very difficult to extrapolate.”
At the beginning of September, Bobby Sekhon, a meteorologist with Environment Canada, said the seasonal forecast was “rather dull.
“The leading indications are autumn in the Yukon will be very ordinary,” he said.
Temperatures, in fact, might even be above-average.
Sekhon said there was the potential for a weak La Nina effect to form, but that’s very uncertain so far, and typically doesn’t affect weather in the Yukon until December at the earliest.
In contrast, the AccuWeather service launched its fall forecast in late August with a very different perspective.
“A colder-than-normal fall could be in store for the areas around British Columbia and the Yukon and Alberta,” senior meteorologist Brett Anderson said in the forecast.
“Fuelled by the La Niña-influenced storms, the pattern could mean early snowfall for some,” senior meteorologist Brett Anderson said in the forecast.
According to Anderson, snow may appear earlier than normal in the coastal mountains of British Columbia and farther east into the Canadian Rockies, which stretch into Alberta.
“Parts of northwestern British Columba and the Yukon may end up with a colder fall compared to normal as a majority of cold outbreaks may be directed into this region from eastern Alaska,” Anderson said.
He said all indications point to the La Niña gaining enough strength to affect the southern Yukon by early this month.
He anticipated October and November will be slightly colder than normal. It will be sufficient to be noticeable, he said, but won’t have a huge impact.
Comments (2)
Up 16 Down 1
Dave on Oct 2, 2021 at 5:00 am
Usually if you look at different weather forecasting websites they each say something different, at least for short term weather. Some use the American model of forecasting while others use the European model and the two don’t agree with each other. I’ve taken to looking out the window each morning rather than relying on forecasters.
Up 15 Down 3
Hate to say it on Oct 1, 2021 at 3:27 pm
Go watch the North Pacific satellite animations. It's very obvious that there is energy being applied to the jet stream to steer it. Crazy and wacky weather indeed. Not like anyone cares though.