It’s still up to Mother Nature to decide whether the Yukon will face a major flooding season.

That was the message from several territorial government employees during a technical briefing held Tuesday afternoon outlining the seasonal forecast for fire and flooding.

Almost all of the information on the prospect of flooding had been previously provided over the last two months by chief hydrologist Holly Goulding in a series of interviews with the Star.

In most areas of the Yukon, particularly the central and northern regions, she said, the snowpack remains at near or above record levels.a

That provides considerable potential for historic flooding similar to the situation that struck the Southern Lakes and Lake Laberge sections in 2021.

The risk of flooding in those areas is lower this year, but it’s all contingent on the weather.

If temperatures remain at seasonal or lower, as has been the case thus far, the risk of flooding is much smaller, Goulding said.

A sudden heat wave, such as last year’s in late June and early July, or heavy precipitation, will alter things swiftly.

Goulding said the government team is collating the data for the May snowpack report, but there was considerably less snow melting for the month than had been expected.

“The melt has been delayed,” she said.

Government officials are monitoring the Dawson City area and the Klondike Valley in particular for flooding. Old Crow is also considered to be at risk.

Currently, Whitehorse and the Southern Lakes region are estimated to be at low risk.

Many of the towns and settlements in the central region, such as Pelly Crossing and Carmacks, are at some risk of flooding.

That’s where Michael Smith, the territorial meteorologist, came into the discussion.

His seasonal forecast indicates cool weather should continue in the coming weeks, and possibly the next two months or so.

A bit of a warm-up, with temperatures hitting approximately 15 C, is in the offing for next week, but that’s likely to be a blip in the extended conditions.

In particular, he said, there is little danger of wildland fires starting until “at least June.

“There’s no hot weather likely anytime soon,” Smith said.

The extensive snowpack on the ground, along with the cool temperatures, are responsible for that, Smith said.

“The next two months are critical,” he and Goulding said.