An anticipated increase in the territory’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016 is not expected to translate into a higher employment rate for Yukoners.

Carol MacLellan, the territory’s director of business and economic research, outlined the territory’s economic outlook Wednesday at the Opportunities North business conference in Whitehorse.

While the GDP is anticipated to grow by 3.5 per cent, MacLellan said, the unemployment rate is expected to also rise to 7.5 per cent.

“We should return to positive economic growth,” she said of 2016.

The numbers take into account a number of factors, including having the Minto mine going back to full production this year.

That means, if things continue as anticipated, 2016 woud see an entire year of full production at the mine, thus the anticipated GDP increase.

In an interview following the presentation, Jamie Coles, senior economist for the territory, explained that though the GDP is expected to rise with the mine now at full production again, it’s not likely to have a major impact on the employment rate. Many of those who were laid off earlier will likely go back to work, Coles said, thereby not representing any new jobs.

In outlining the economic outlook into next year, MacLellan made it clear that she and others who work in economics cannot see into the future, but rather look at a number of factors in trying to get an idea of what to expect.

“We do not have crystal balls,” she said.

If that were the case, she said, she would have taken out stocks in Apple years ago and would be sitting on a private island by now.

MacLellan then noted the projections come from “rigorous math” and are based on certain assumptions like the continuation of the Minto mine.

The equation also included the assumption that the other mine sites which have closed over the past year or so will remain closed.

Also factored in are the state of the global economy, exchange rates, energy prices and so on.

“As mining goes down, so do our economic prospects,” she said.

Displaying a number of charts and graphs throughout her presentation, MacLellan pointed out 2015 marks the third consecutive year that the territory’s economy shrunk.

“We had a really good run for about 10 years,” she said, citing 2013 as the first year the Yukon saw an economic contraction.

It’s anticipated 2015 will finish up having seen a six per cent decline in GDP, she noted, though she added the territory is still ahead of where it was a decade ago.

A decrease in retail sales this year is also anticipated as a ripple effect from the mining closures in the territory, though it’s expected to rise in 2016 thanks partly to an increase in population.

MacLellan also pointed out the boost in the territory’s population in recent years – projected to be up to 38,000, mainly in Whitehorse, by the end of 2016 – is having an impact.

“We have seen growth in the labour market,” she said, pointing to the challenge presented by a higher population on employment rates.

Despite the projected rising unemployment rates and so on, MacLellan noted, “There are some bright spots.”

Those include a potential for oil and gas development and major construction projects that are already or slated to get underway, such as the building of the new F.H. Collins Secondary School and the new Sarah Steele Building downtown.

After outlining what may be in store for the territory over the next year and a bit, MacLellan said that looking beyond 2016 becomes more of a challenge.

Many unknown factors could affect the territory’s economy greatly, she said. Those same issues played roles in the 2015 and 2016 forecast like exchange rates, commodity prices and global economic issues.

The Opportunities North conference wrapped up this morning at the Yukon Convention Centre.

See more conference coverage on p. 4 and in Friday’s edition.