Photo by Whitehorse Star
Pictured Above: RYAN LEEF
Photo by Whitehorse Star
Pictured Above: RYAN LEEF
A study released by EKOS Research on Monday concludes that the seven ridings, including the Yukon, involved in the robocall investigation were targeted by a voter suppression program.
A study released by EKOS Research on Monday concludes that the seven ridings, including the Yukon, involved in the robocall investigation were targeted by a voter suppression program.
Ryan Leef, the Yukon's Conservative MP, called the survey "laughable” in an interview today, adding, though, that the issue itself is not.
The study surveyed 3,297 Canadian adults in the seven ridings between April 13 and April 19. In the Yukon, 466 adults were surveyed.
EKOS also surveyed 1,500 Canadians across 106 ridings that are not under investigation as comparison ridings.
The survey found that voters in the seven ridings in question were more likely to receive calls asking how they planned to vote than the comparison ridings, 61 per cent compared to 44 per cent.
In those seven ridings, voters who said who they planned to vote for were almost twice as likely to recieve a call that their voting station had changed, 34 per cent compared to 18 per cent.
The final report said, "It is highly likely that initial identification (a valid process) was linked to an invalid and misleading application, targeted at non-Conservative voters in the final stages of the campaign.”
"Moreover, as there was only one polling station change, in only one of the subject ridings, the information conveyed by such calls was almost always false,” it continued.
Sixteen per cent of Yukoners surveyed recieved a call regarding the location of their polling station for the May 2 election; 36 per cent of those calls were misleading robocalls that said the polling station location had changed.
Of the people in the Yukon who received a call regarding their polling station, 10.7 per cent of those surveyed said it caused them not to vote.
The EKOS report said "exposure to these calls clearly had a dampening effect on the propensity for non-Conservative supporters to vote.”
Taking into account a margin of error, EKOS estimated that if the robocalls had not taken place, the Conservative party in each of the seven ridings would have lost its advantage by between 0.8 and 2.2 per cent.
The report says one of the key challenges with the survey is that these calls took place more than a year ago.
"The frequency of voter suppression and harassing calls may be overstated by those who "over-remember” receiving a misleading phone call. Also, given the amount of media attention that the alleged fraudulent telephone calls have received in recent weeks, it is possible that the frequency of these calls is overstated by disgruntled voters who are unhappy with the current government,” it said.
The survey did attempt to account for this possibility in its results concerning voter supression.
"The incidence of these misleading calls may have been overstated due to memory and other errors, but the incidence of non-voting is also most likely understated by a larger amount,” the report said.
Leef said he's never paid too much attention to polls, highlighting the recent failure of pollsters to predict the outcome of Monday's Alberta election.
"I always measure polls with a great deal of caution when I think they're done in a fair and unbiased fashion, but never mind when they're done by somebody who has made his political views completely outright,” said Leef, referring to EKOS president Frank Graves and comments he made in 2010.
Graves' remarks were first quoted by Globe and Mail columnist Lawrence Martin.
He suggested the Liberals could defeat the Conservatives by instigating a "culture war.”
"He described this as a battle between ‘cosmopolitanism versus parochialism, secularism versus moralism, Obama versus Palin, tolerance versus racism and homophobia, democracy versus autocracy.
"If the cranky old men in Alberta don't like it, too bad. Go south and vote for Palin,'” according to an article in the Globe in which Graves apologizes for his comments.
Graves denied any advisory role with the Liberal party, saying he often theorizes strategies for political parties when talking with journalists.
In the same article, Graves is quoted as saying, "Whether or not I am a centre-moderate in my political beliefs – which I am, which I didn't think was a matter of great shame in this country – is irrelevant to the question of whether or not I can conduct myself as a sociologist or pollster in a fair and neutral fashion.”
Leef was further concerned about the validity of the survey results because he said people were offered the chance to win $500 if they participated in the poll.
"In my mind, the entire poll is suspect and invalidated as soon as you go down that road,” he said.
"If a police officer were to collect evidence by offering incentives or rewards, the evidence would be completely invalidated.”
Leef made it clear that he is committed to supporting and participating in Elections Canada's investigation into the robocalls.
However, with regard to the EKOS poll, he said "They completely tanked the credibility of their evidence by hiring who they hired to conduct the poll and by offering reward incentives to participate in it.
"In terms of voter suppression, and I mean this on behalf of the three other gentleman that participated in the last general election with me, (Green Party candidate) John Streicker, (Liberal) Larry Bagnell and (New Democrat) Kevin Barr, we put in a concerted effort to run respectful campaigns; we put in a concerted effort to increase the voter turnout in the Yukon,” said Leef.
The Yukon had a three per cent higher turnout over 2008, he said, and three per cent above the national average.
"If anybody was on a mandated voter suppression regime, they did a very bad job of it,” he said.
Graves was unavailable for comment before press time this afternoon.
In order to encourage thoughtful and responsible discussion, website comments will not be visible until a moderator approves them. Please add comments judiciously and refrain from maligning any individual or institution. Read about our user comment and privacy policies.
Your name and email address are required before your comment is posted. Otherwise, your comment will not be posted.
Comments (9)
Up 0 Down 0
Jackie Ward on Apr 28, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Sick and tired of the arrogance that oozes from the entire CPC. I would be embarrassed to have my thoughts and words controlled by lunatics hell bent on destroying what is left of this great country. Way to go Mr Leef.
Up 0 Down 0
DG on Apr 27, 2012 at 4:38 pm
It's sad really, sure the 60% or so of canadians didn't vote for the guys in power but 40% of the population rallied behind one team.
Now if others could get it through there noggins that banding together will actually do something, maybe the left wingnuts could actually win.
Up 0 Down 0
north_of_60 on Apr 26, 2012 at 11:02 am
EKOS surveys are notoriously biased, only LWNJs give them any credibility.
This is another obvious case of 'sour-grapes' lefties manufacturing dissent.
You lost, get over it. This only makes you look even more desperate and foolish.
Up 0 Down 0
M.D. on Apr 26, 2012 at 8:10 am
I don't get why Ryan and the Conservatives have taken this line. It actually makes them seem guiltier than if they just pledged to cooperate with the investigation. Unless they figure if they just keep scoffing the whole matter will go away.
Up 0 Down 0
nick on Apr 26, 2012 at 4:54 am
Voter suppression is against the law, I don't care who was responsible, but instead of scoffing at surveys, I expect my MP to be in the lead to denounce this illegal act, and assist in getting to the bottom of it.
someone tried to steal some Yukoners votes, and thats wrong.
Up 0 Down 0
a_Reader on Apr 26, 2012 at 4:21 am
Ekos offers money for all their surveys, this wasn't anything special, the money is also for completing the survey - the answers don't matter. Leef is so clueless he has "completely tanked IN credibility"
Up 0 Down 0
Matthew Sills on Apr 25, 2012 at 8:51 am
"If a police officer were to collect evidence by offering incentives or rewards, the evidence would be completely invalidated.”
What a ridiculous thing to say!
It happens all the time. Jailhouse snitches don't do it because they are upstanding citizens, they do it for the "incentives" law enforcement dangles in front of them. Rewards are offered all the time.
Up 0 Down 0
Patrick on Apr 25, 2012 at 8:20 am
"They completely tanked the credibility of their evidence by hiring who they hired to conduct the poll and by offering reward incentives to participate in it.
"In terms of voter suppression, and I mean this on behalf of the three other gentleman that participated in the last general election with me, (Green Party candidate) John Streicker, (Liberal) Larry Bagnell and (New Democrat) Kevin Barr, we put in a concerted effort to run respectful campaigns; we put in a concerted effort to increase the voter turnout in the Yukon,” said Leef.
"If anybody was on a mandated voter suppression regime, they did a very bad job of it,” he said.
Why is Ryan making such silly statements?
Up 0 Down 0
Any-Mous on Apr 25, 2012 at 7:45 am
this is why alberta's Wildrose party also lost by a huge percentage of voters to conservatives?
just sayin'. Sounds like people are just sore losers now.