All fishing for Yukon River chinook salmon has been suspended until authorities are confident a minimum 48,750 have made it across the Yukon-Alaska border.

The Department of Fisheries and Oceans announced the increased conservation measure Friday afternoon, after the Yukon First Nations had been informed of the decision Thursday.

Federal Fisheries Minister Gail Shea accepted the recommendation from the Yukon Salmon Sub-Committee to set the minimum border crossing of 48,750 before any fishing opportunities would be considered.

Steve Gotch, area manager for Fisheries and Oceans, said this morning as the numbers present themselves today, it’s not looking like 48,750 will reach the Yukon, so it’s likely there will be no aboriginal food fishing – by law.

For many years the minimum border crossing of 30,000 was used as the floor before the aboriginal food fishery was closed, and 42,500 before consideration would be given to commercial and sport fishing opportunities.

With the Yukon River chinook stock showing signs of being in deep trouble, tight conservation measures are being implemented on both sides of the border.

Last year, for instance, Yukon First Nations voluntarily suspended their food fishery, resulting in a total catch of 100 chinook, the lowest harvest on record. The previous low harvest of 1,920 was recorded in 2013, when First Nations recommended a conservative approach to fishing.

Many of the Yukon First Nations supported another full closure this year, and some have called for a full closure through a full chinook life cycle of seven to eight years to allow the stock to rebound.

The Yukon Salmon Sub-Committee forwarded its recommendation to raise the floor to 48,750 in June.

Gotch explained this morning the minimum spawning target for the Yukon has always been set at 42,500, which is why the U.S. must take measures to ensure 42,500 reach the border.

In the two previous years, red zone – no fishing zone – was set at a minimum of 42,500, compared to 30,000 in the past 15 years or more, Gotch explained.

He said by using the 42,500 as the new floor in the last two years, it was still a case of managing to the low end of the spawning target of 42,500 to 55,000.

If the estimate of the total run to the border was off, as it was in 2013, there would be no room for error and the minimum of 42,500 would not be met.

Gotch said by managing to the 48,750 number before any fishing is allowed, there is room for error while still achieving the 42,500.

In 2013, for instance, Alaska and Yukon salmon managers were predicting more than 42,500 would reach the border, allowing for a conservative aboriginal food harvest.

The First Nations implemented a conservative fishing plan resulting in the harvest of 1,920, though the total number that eventually made it into the Yukon was 30,573, leaving 28,653 for the spawning grounds, far short of the 42,500.

Meanwhile, Gotch acknowledged this year’s total run of Yukon River chinook salmon is looking poorer than originally thought.

The pre-season estimates put the total run at somewhere between 118,000 and 140,000, about half of which would be chinook of Yukon origin.

The total numbers of chinook counted by the sonar at Pilot Station as of midnight Sunday was 113,485, with the run all but over.

The portion of fish bound for the Yukon has been estimated at 43 per cent, though the vast majority of Yukon bound chinook are seen at the front of the run and not the end.

Gotch said using the math, the total run would be somewhere between 115,000 and 118,000, or not enough to see 48,750 cross the border, which means there will be no aboriginal food fishing this year.

Not 20 years ago, it was not unusual for the Alaska harvest of Yukon River chinook to total 150,000 and 200,000 between the subsistence and commercial fisheries. It wasn’t unusual for Yukon First Nations to harvest 5,000 to 10,000 chinook, with another 8,000 to 10,000 taken by the commercial boats in Dawson.