The climate is heating up, students confirm
Using data gathered from century-old White Pass and Yukon Route railway logbooks, Yukon College students have confirmed the territory is indeed getting warmer.
By Stephanie Waddell on April 10, 2014
Using data gathered from century-old White Pass and Yukon Route railway logbooks, Yukon College students have confirmed the territory is indeed getting warmer.
On Wednesday, students in Mark Shumelda's introduction to statistics class presented their results in a year-end project.
Among other findings, they discovered that Carmacks has seen a increase of 11.86 degrees over a 100-year period on average for the month of February.
Similarly, the temperature in Carcross has risen by three degrees for the month of January.
During their presentation at the college, the students detailed the information they had extrapolated using weather data from the railway's log books dating back to 1902.
Last year, the data were released by White Pass, and are now available through the Yukon Research Centre's data server.
The students also used more recent information from Environment Canada to reach their conclusions.
On the walls of Shumelda's classroom, displays by each group of about four students who worked on specific regions showed graphs comparing temperature averages, mean temperatures and so on.
While each group researched a different area of the territory, all the groups noted in their presentations that weather is becoming more extreme.
There have also been changes in the length of seasons in many regions.
"Our falls and springs are actually extending,” said Vishnu Kolothumkattil, who was part of the group researching Whitehorse.
While the students used much of their data from the railway's historic information, a number pointed to imperfections in the data.
Some locations had weather information recorded daily, while others did not. It also wasn't known if the temperatures were recorded in the same spot at the same time or what equipment was used to get the temperature.
"We did recognize there were some gaps in our data,” said another student, who was part of the group researching the weather of Dawson City, noting more recent data from Environment Canada provided more reliable data as they're taken at the same place and same time on a consistent basis.
"We definitely learned there's a huge variation in Dawson City,” said sciences student Faith Green, noting Dawson too is experiencing the warming trend seen in other parts of the territory.
Students had been working on their final projects for about the last two months, Shumelda said in an interview following the presentations.
"We spent a lot of hours on it,” he said. "I'm really pleased.”
Shumelda said he tries to come up with a project for his introduction to statistics class each semester involving the students' every day lives.
"Weather is a common factor which affects every industry and way of life,” he said.
"There is great educational benefit in having students not only apply what they are learning, but with data sets that are relevant to their communities and to all Yukoners.”
It's one thing to anecdotally speak of the territory becoming warmer, but the projects show exactly what is happening.
As the students did, Shumelda acknowledged that the data from the White Pass log books may have certain faults, such as not being collected at the same time and place every day.
However, he noted it's the only information available prior to Environment Canada records beginning in the 1940s.
"It's a start,” Shumelda said.
The project also fit with the college's recently released strategic plan committing the school to expanding research opportunities involving students.
As college president Karen Barnes said, "This student research project is an example of how Yukon College is working hard to provide research opportunities for our students, whether it is in the classroom, through directed studies or through employment opportunities at the Yukon Research Centre.”
While it marks the final project for students in the class this semester, Shumelda is already envisioning future year-end finals that could expand on it, including making weather predictions for Yukon communities.
That could be done in collaboration with work already underway at the research centre's Northern Climate ExChange.
Comments (13)
Up 5 Down 3
Just Say'in on Apr 15, 2014 at 9:09 am
@Atom…Now I don't care who you are that was FUNNY. That is also the kind of Science they are using. Thanks for the laugh.
Up 9 Down 5
Atom on Apr 15, 2014 at 8:27 am
Pineapple express was awesome this year....given my woodpile calculations if not for it I'd be sawing wood 2 weeks ago......I'll need to calculate next years wood with this past years weather so I don't cut too much!
I should apply for a gig teaching at the College!
Up 4 Down 5
north_of_60 on Apr 15, 2014 at 5:10 am
@MM " Arguing that earlier breakups are due to global warming is simply put, well, simplistic."
Quite true. Don't infer what wasn't stated.
Ice break-up at Dawson and Fairbanks show the same trends. The readers can decide for themselves what might cause it.
Up 6 Down 5
Max Mack on Apr 14, 2014 at 10:08 pm
North_of_60
Ice breakup at Dawson is greatly affected by conditions upstream, where the majority of the watershed is. Arguing that earlier breakups are due to global warming is simply put, well, simplistic. Construction of the Whitehorse dam in 1958 would, by itself, change the timing of breakups.
Don't forget to factor in the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, amongst many other issues.
Up 15 Down 8
north_of_60 on Apr 13, 2014 at 7:07 am
The date and time of ice break-up at Dawson has been recorded since 1896.
http://www.taiga.net/coop/indics/dawbkup.html
Ice break-up near Fairbanks shows the same trend since the 20s.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/03/the-nenana-ice-classic-and-climate/
Environment Canada data from the 40s shows that our winters have been steadily getting slightly warmer, the rest of the seasons not as much.
The students' analyses show similar trends.
Making math and science relevant to the real world helps students learn the skills to sort scientific truth from media propaganda. We need more teachers who understand this.
Up 16 Down 13
Just Say'in on Apr 12, 2014 at 11:43 am
I don't think anyone does not believe that the Glaciers are receding. After all we used to be under a mile of ice. The top of Grey Mountain was scoured by the Glaciers. The question is whether it is human caused. As for the river, we would still be having Rendezvous on the ice if we didn't add the fourth wheel to the dam. That is what keeps the water opened in town. Just another half mile downstream the ice is fine. And that is a fact.
Up 12 Down 14
Just say'in on Apr 12, 2014 at 11:35 am
@asdf
Now pick a date three weeks away and do the same thing. Total different result. Try five years later, total different result. The idea isn't to acquire the result you want and then work forward.
Up 17 Down 11
Francis Pillman on Apr 12, 2014 at 7:16 am
Where is the data from the sun? Where is the data for amount of snow on the ground? Who cares about facts. Just steal my money through a carbon tax. Earth magically gets better. Rolls eyes.
Up 14 Down 9
B. Foster on Apr 12, 2014 at 2:37 am
Even anecdotal evidence / data has value or merit to be considered when discussing things such as climate change.
Those who have been up here for all of their lives and are connected to previous generations that have been up here for most / all of theirs as well will willingly attest to the fact that over the past number of decades the area has obviously been warming.
Whether this trend is short term and will in the coming decades reverse itself remains to be seen but there is no denying the recent warming trend.
Back in the early late 70's and 80's we were still hosting Rendezvous on the river....how long since the ice has allowed this.
There are many many instances of local knowledge alluding to the Yukon being warmer of late and it's obvious.
Ask local tour pilots about the fate of "Big Blue", a small but prominent glacier near the Skagway summit that has all but disappeared completely in just the span of the last decade.
We ignore the implications of our impact on the climate at our own peril. It would be no surprise if humanity thumbed it's nose into oblivion in this regard.
We are an arrogant species with a penchant for taking to heart information that reinforces the status quo and vilifying anything that threatens our short term comfort / coddled position or implies that "we" are largely to blame for some epic malady unfolding before or eyes; at least that portion of our species that is warm, dry and fed for the most part.
I suspect those of our species who dream of being warm, dry and fed are much less arrogant and likely could be happy with much less than we (westerners on the whole or those who aspire to western lifestyles) consider ourselves entitled to.
Toddlers with tommy guns....thats us...
Up 19 Down 11
asdf on Apr 11, 2014 at 11:20 am
Hey Just Say'in:
No data was cherry picked. Here is the WP&YR; raw data:
http://yukonresearch.yukoncollege.yk.ca/wpyr/
Here is how you get the Environment Canada Data:
http://climate.weather.gc.ca (perform a search for the appropriate community)
Now take the average of each month for the communities under question. Do a rolling average of 5 or 11 year intervals, or whatever intervals you want. You will have 1200 points of data of monthly averages (12 months x 100 years). Finally, plot each of the 12 months of the year for the communities in question.
Let us know if you reach a different conclusion!
Until then, you know, just say'in…
Up 16 Down 23
Just Say'in on Apr 11, 2014 at 4:26 am
Typical Global warming industry BS. That whole department depends on there being proof, or the program wouldn't exist.
Try this, go back to 1942 when weather info officially started being collected by Environment Canada and you will see no change in the average over the whole year. You can't take bad data like someone writing it on the calendar in 1903 or something. Also you can't just cherry pick one month in one particular year. This is terrible data. Finding the Data that suits the result you want, is not science.
Up 31 Down 16
north_of_60 on Apr 10, 2014 at 7:55 am
Good work by the students. Hopefully they will put their results up on a website for us to see.
Up 21 Down 38
Max Mack on Apr 10, 2014 at 7:26 am
So . . . the students have "confirmed" the result that the release of the data was hoped to show: that the climate is changing ("warming").
Unfortunately, warming is not possible to show scientifically unless this data collection has been tightly controlled. Which we know it hasn't.
Differing instrumentation with varying sensitivities and calibration, differing sampling times and locations over time by untrained personnel, improper measurement controls, improper siting, etc.
The most fundamental basics of science and statistics have been ignored here. Yet, the instructor has encouraged the students to violate those basic tenents.