Survey has Greens leading New Democrats
The Yukon is still Larry Bagnell-country, says a DataPath Systems poll released today.
The Yukon is still Larry Bagnell-country, says a DataPath Systems poll released today.
The survey puts the Liberal-incumbent at a whopping 44 per cent support among decided voters in the runup to the May 2 federal election.
Conservative hopeful Ryan Leef trails far behind, garnering 24 per cent support.
Green Party candidate John Streicker is at 20 per cent, while New Democratic Party candidate Kevin Barr sits at just 12 per cent.
With less than a week before voters go to the polls, candidates trailing Bagnell will want to target the 47 per cent of Yukoners who remain in varying states of indecision.
Among those voters, 28 per cent are soft-supporters, or, as DataPath describes them – "mostly decided, but might still change their mind.”
Despite the Conservative attacks on Bagnell for his long-gun registry vote flip-flop, his polling numbers remain consistent with the more than 45 per cent popular support he received in the 2008 general election.
But Leef, who continues to use the long-gun registry as a wedge issue, is polling nearly 10 per cent behind his predecessor, Darrell Pasloski, who earned 32.5 per cent of the popular vote three years ago.
Streicker and his Green Party faithful will be buoyed by the latest numbers – up from the 13 per cent support he won at the 2008 polls.
Barr, however, is bucking the current nationwide surge in support for party leader Jack Layton and the rest of the NDP.
An EKOS-iPolitics.ca survey of more than 3,000 Canadians shows the New Democrats have support from 28 per cent of decided voters.
That's nearly five per cent more than the Liberals and fewer than six points off the Conservative frontrunners, who are sitting at 33.7 per cent.
And national numbers appear to gel with Yukoners' preferences for prime minister, with 35 per cent favouring Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, 28 per cent for NDP Leader Jack Layton and 24 per cent for Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.
But DataPath's survey also notes that Yukoners continue to be split on why they select their candidate – 55 per cent responding that it's based on the party's vision for the country, versus 45 per cent for what the candidate promises for the territory.
On 10 issues presented to respondents and based on a ranking of either four or five (on a scale of one to five), 76 per cent are "in support” of increased spending on renewable energy and 62 per cent favour increasing environmental regulations.
Interestingly, just 19 per cent of respondents rated the management of climate change at a similar level of importance.
The third most pressing issue is "focus(ing) on helping those in need” with 61 per cent of respondents ranking that a four or five.
Debt reduction rated just above 50 per cent support for those polled and defending northern sovereignty with an expanded military presence rated just 39 per cent.
The government's management of the economy scored 37 per cent, the gun registry 28 per cent, nuclear power development 21 per cent and Canada's policy alignment with the United States, 11 per cent.
Another statistic that looms in the background is voter turnout.
In 2008, 37 per cent of eligible Yukon voters opted not to exercise their democratic right, and Bagnell's challengers could increase their support by encouraging those people to get out and vote.
DataPath, an independent Yukon-based market research company, conducted telephone surveys with 273 Whitehorse residents and 125 non-capital city residents.
The company said its survey is valid 19 times out of 20 with a plus/minus variance of 4.8 per cent.
See letters,
Comments (5)
Up 0 Down 0
Jason Unrau on Apr 27, 2011 at 8:59 am
The poll was done independently, like the scores of other DataPath political polls conducted by the "independent ... market research" company, as DataPath is described in this story, and in past stories about it and its political polls. If this poll had been commissioned, then attribution would have been provided.
Up 0 Down 0
Norm Hamilton on Apr 27, 2011 at 7:10 am
Good question Doug. I hadn't heard that, but it does make sense as the polls could possibly cause some sway.
Mark, may I suggest that if you have questions of John Streiker, just get hold of him and ask them. Simple solution. I've found him to be open and straight forward with answers.
Norm
Up 0 Down 0
mark on Apr 26, 2011 at 11:14 am
I think this is bogus... No one that i know has been contacted by data path, or have they ever. The vibe i get is bagnell is on his way out, the problem is... who is strong enough to be our MLA. I dont believe leef has what it takes, nor does streiker.. too many unanswered questions on their pasts. The election is coming.. and my hands are in the air
Up 0 Down 0
Francias pillman on Apr 26, 2011 at 10:06 am
Congratulations to Yukoners once again for electing someone who does not do a thing for the Yukon. Yes, the election is not over, but we all know who will get in. Even if you don't like the Conservatives, I suggest you change your mind and stop being selfish and think of the Yukon as a whole. Chances are Harper will get a majority, so having a lone liberal representing us makes no sense at all. Having a conservative in Ottawa will benefit us. If we give Harper a Yukon seat, I'm pretty sure we will reap at least some benefits. Stop voting for an old man, with old ideas. We need a fresh face and ideas. Not a MP who is only good at flipping hamburgers and giving fake smiles and fake promises. You people who vote Larry in again, are probably the same people who voted bev buckway for a second term. Stop being scared of change, because it is hurting the Yukon as a whole.
Up 0 Down 0
Doug Rutherford on Apr 26, 2011 at 7:30 am
Who commissioned the poll?
As I remember, that information must be included when reporting the results of a poll during an election.