The return of Yukon River chinook salmon crossing into the territory on the mainstem is lower than expected, says a manager for the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO).

Steve Smith said in an interview last Friday it’s not clear why the anticipated number of chinook are not showing up – but they’re not.

It may have been the preseason forecast was off, he said.

Smith said there may be environmental factors like low water in the mainstem of the river or water temperatures warmer than normal, but its not likely.

The manager of fisheries and treaties for the Yukon River said it’s not clear whether the harvest by the subsistence fishery in Alaska is a factor.

But if the fish don’t show up, said Smith, there will certainly be a discussion about it in the post-run analysis that is conducted annually.

“I would agree that what is coming over the border is not what we were expecting,” he said.

Smith estimates the return is somewhere around 10,000 fewer chinook than forecast in the preseason.

Yukon First Nations are indicating the fishing has been slow, he said.

The annual migration of Yukon River chinook has been well below historical averages for the past decade.

There has not been any commercial fishing on either side of the border for several years.

Yukon First Nations have implemented a cautionary approach to their traditional food fisheries for several years, as has the subsistence fishery in Alaska, though Alaska’s fishery has been ramping back up in recent years, according to records.

Under the international treaty that governs salmon management on the Yukon River, Alaska is entitled to harvest a portion of the chinook that are deemed to be of Canadian origin but are not required to meet spawning objectives.

This year’s count at the sonar near the mouth of the river estimates the total return of chinook at 218,875, or the second-highest count in 13 years, according to records.

Today’s daily report out of Alaska estimates 46,694 chinook have passed by the the sonar at Eagle, Alaska near the border below Dawson City, with the run all but over.

It’s the lowest border passage in the last six years, even with the second-highest count entering the river in the last 13 years.

Harvest estimates in the Yukon and Alaska are not typically available until well after the season ends.

“At this point, it is a bit of a surprise to all of us in both Canada and the U.S.,” Smith explained Friday. “Unless 10,000 chinook salmon all of a suddenly decide to show up, it will no doubt be a major point of discussion at the Yukon River Panel this winter.”

The minimum escapement goal for the Yukon along the mainstem of the river is 42,500.

The chinook management plan developed in the territory by the Yukon Salmon Sub-committee and Yukon First Nations establishes 48,750 as the minimum escapement target.

Smith said DFO has informed First Nations that this year’s return of chinook puts the harvest level in the cautionary zone.

Meanwhile, the count of chinook passing through the Whitehorse Fish Ladder to reach spawning grounds above the Whitehorse Rapids Dam has also been slower than usual.

Ladder supervisor Preet Dhillon said Tuesday the count so far is about half of what it was at this time last year.

She said 145 chinook had passed through the ladder as of yesterday.

Most are from wild stock, with the remainder being fish reared at the Whitehorse Fish Hatchery.

Of the total, there were 83 males of wild stock and 14 hatchery males. There were 43 females of wild stock and five hatchery females.

Last year, 691 chinook passed through the ladder, compared to 1,227 in 2017.

The poorest year recorded since the hatchery opened in the mid-1980s saw a return of just fewer than 400 fish.

Conversely, the best year saw more than 2,900 climb the ladder.