The search for a foreign object downed over the Yukon on Feb. 11 has been called off.

The item’s origin may never be discovered now, though one theory, surrounding an American hobbyist club’s missing research balloon, is gaining traction.

In a televised address Feb. 11, National Defence Minister Anita Anand said Norad had shot down a small, cylindrical foreign object that had been illegally occupying Yukon airspace.

Since the object had been hovering at about 40,000 feet, she said, it had posed a threat to civilian aircraft. 

Two days later, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told reporters in Whitehorse the origin and nature of the object were still unclear, but Canadian armed forces were leading a ground search with the local RCMP for debris to determine just what had been shot down.

“There is much analysis going on at the highest levels of Norad, in both Canada and the United States, to try and understand more,” he said last week.

That analysis has offered no clear answers. Neither has the ground search, which the RCMP ended on Friday.

The size and difficulty of the terrain being searched between Dawson City and Mayo, coupled with harsh winter conditions, made it unlikely anything would be found at this point, the RCMP said in a release.

The search involved a handful of aircraft and helicopters and about 50 people. The Canadian Rangers were not asked to participate.

The RCMP release also stated there’s a “belief the object is not tied to a scenario that justifies extraordinary search efforts.”

What scenario might the object be tied to, then?

The Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade might have the answer.

The community club – NIBBB, for short – is missing a small hobby balloon that it’s been tracking as it circumnavigates the Earth.

The balloon, which is hooked up with radio equipment, last transmitted its location to the club on Feb. 10, when it was hovering at about 40,000 feet off the west coast of Alaska.

Aviation Week first reported on the possible connection to the downed object in the Yukon last Thursday, the day before the RCMP announced it was terminating its search.

It’s since been picked up by larger outlets, including the CBC, New York Magazine and the Daily Mail.

Further evidence, though circumstantial, also suggests a simple hobby balloon may be what provoked the deployment of two Norad fighter jets and a week-long, military-led ground search. 

It isn’t airtight. But it is curious.

Aviation Week reported Thursday that after their “cylindrically-shaped” balloon’s last transmission from Alaska, the club used forecasting equipment provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that estimated their balloon would be flying over central Yukon on Feb. 11, the same day and location that two F-22s shot down a foreign object with heat-seeking missiles.

That missing balloon is a “pico balloon,” a small, inexpensive balloon common among hobbyists.

Pico balloons are rigged with basic radio equipment, allowing amateur researchers to launch and track them as the balloons circle the globe. 

NIBBB members have agreed not to speak with the media since they announced their balloon was missing last Tuesday – the group’s website is also non-responsive as of this morning.

One club member did speak anonymously with Politico last week, however.

The member told Politico it wasn’t yet possible to confirm Norad had shot down its balloon, but given what the group knows, “it’s not a huge reach.”

U.S. President Joe Biden gave a speech at the White House last week that suggested balloons like the one NIBBB is missing could be behind all three foreign objects shot down between Feb. 10-12.

“The intelligence community’s current assessment is that these three objects (shot down over North America over the Feb. 11-12 weekend) were most likely balloons tied to private companies, recreation, or research institutions studying weather or conducting other scientific research,” he said.

The object shot down between Dawson and Mayo was the third of four foreign aircraft shot down over North America this month.

The objects have heightened tensions between the governments of China and North America, while intensifying discussions over Arctic sovereignty and security. 

Canadian and American officials have only offered information on the identity of one foreign object this month so far.

The object shot down off the coast of the Carolinas Feb. 4 has been identified as a “spy balloon” of Chinese origin. China continues to deny this claim.