The latest DataPath Systems poll shows the territory's federal election race is getting closer, and could produce a tight victory margin for the winner, the polling company believes.

Liberal incumbent Larry Bagnell is maintaining his lead, but it's smaller than seen in past surveys.

Several months prior to the January 2006 election, Bagnell showed 57 per cent of Yukoners planning to vote for him. That popularity continued into 2007, when, last September, he still showed 53 per cent of the voters planning to endorse him if the election had been called then.

In the spring of 2008, this dropped to 49 per cent. This month, in the heat of the campaign, Bagnell has dropped slightly again to 47 per cent, DataPath reported in a poll released today.

"A good part of this is due to increases for both the Conservative Party and the Green Party," the company reported. "The next-closest candidate to Mr. Bagnell is Darrell Pasloski of the Conservative Party, now with 34 per cent of the vote."

This is up from 30 per cent in July and 24 per cent in March. At the same time, there was a shift from the NDP to the Green Party, DataPath found.

Prior to the election call, and with an undeclared candidate, the NDP was holding 12 per cent of the voting preferences (down from the 25 per cent prior to the 2006 election).

"Getting off to a slow start, and not having a candidate (Ken Bolton) until after the election was called, the NDP has dropped further to only five per cent," DataPath said.

"The Green Party, at six per cent prior to the last election, has climbed to 14 per cent with John Streicker, up from nine per cent in July."

The results are based on telephone and online surveys conducted with 150 Whitehorse residents and 150 non-Whitehorse residents between Sept. 13 and last Sunday.

Yukoners are split on the reason they have chosen their candidate, the poll concluded.

Slightly more than half felt the primary reason was based on what that person can do for the Yukon.

Slightly less than half choose that candidate due to what his party envisions or can do for Canada, DataPath said.

Those planning to vote Conservative are mainly (75 per cent) doing so because of what they envision the party can do for Canada, the poll found.

Most (83 per cent) of those planning to support Bagnell will do so because of what they envision he can do for the Yukon, the poll found.

"This correlates to who Yukoners feel they prefer as Canada's next prime minister," DataPath said.

"Since a year ago, Mr. (Stephen) Harper's popularity increased from 37 per cent feeling he would make the best prime minister to 53 per cent today.

"Liberal Leader Stephane Dion has seen his popularity with Yukoners drop from 31 per cent last September to only 15 per cent now.

"Even among those planning to vote Liberal, only 33 per cent support Mr. Dion while 41 per cent support Stephen Harper as the best leader for Canada."

Respondents were asked which issue was the most important one for their candidate to agree with them on.

The top responses were the economy (25 per cent) and climate change (20 per cent).

"The younger the voter, the more likely they were to feel that climate change was the top issue," DataPath reported.

"As age increased, so did the likelihood that the Afghanistan war was a top issue."

Conservative voters were more likely to choose the economy as the top issue (34 per cent), compared to Liberal voters (25 per cent), NDP boosters (24 per cent) and Green Party loyalists (seven per cent).

Liberal and NDP voters were more likely to rate climate change (18 per cent) and health care (18 per cent) at the top.

Green Party supporters were significantly more likely to feel their candidate had to agree with them primarily on climate change (53 per cent).

Respondents were asked to select the three issues their candidates need to agree with them on.

The answers focused on the economy and health care, with 50 per cent of respondents including them in their top three items.

They were followed by climate change (38 per cent) and gasoline prices (34 per cent).

Asked to rate how they feel the current government is doing on those areas, few received top marks, despite Harper's popularity.

Those items where Yukoners rated the government in a positive light (a four or five on a five-point scale) included the peacekeeping agendas (32 per cent rated a four or five), northern sovereignty (32 per cent), the economy (31 per cent), health care (29 per cent), the Afghanistan war (26 per cent), the arts (24 per cent), gun control (23 per cent) and reducing crime (21 per cent).

Weak areas for the Harper government among Yukoners (with half or more giving negative, one or two rating) are gas prices (67 per cent), climate change (64 per cent), housing (56 per cent), gun control (54 per cent), social issues (49 per cent), and the arts (48 per cent).

DataPath Systems is an independent Marsh Lake-based market research company.

The data are weighted to accurately represent Yukoners based on the community they live in, their age and gender.

Percentages are statistically valid to +/- 5.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20 (95 per cent confidence).

The data reported here are from non-commissioned sections of the study, paid for by DataPath.