Poll suggests the race is down to two parties
It's a race between the Yukon Party and the NDP, with the territorial election only four days away, according to DataPath Systems' latest poll.
It's a race between the Yukon Party and the NDP, with the territorial election only four days away, according to DataPath Systems' latest poll.
At this point, the two parties are tied at 35 per cent in popular vote, while the Liberal party is trailing behind at 26 per cent, the polling company is reporting.
The Liberals are up 11 per cent since July. Both the Green Party and the Yukon First Nations Party received two per cent of the popular vote in the survey.
But it's those who are still undecided who might just determine what party wins on Tuesday, according to Donna Larsen, a co-owner of the polling company.
"The NDP have the potential to to pick up those votes,” she told the Star this morning. "It's whether or not they pick up enough to win; that's the question. The Yukon Party will most likely keep the strong support they have.”
Although it seems as if the Yukon Party and the NDP are going head-to head, the conservative party may have an advantage.
The latest results show that 80 per cent of the Yukon Party's voters are 100 per cent decided on their candidate, while the NDP has only a 68 per cent security rate.
"The Yukon Party has a strong position,” said Larsen. "They're firmly entrenched in conservative business, and seen as the economic party. There is always strong support for that.”
The September poll showed the NDP's messaging was coming in loud and clear, Larsen continued.
Voters are finding the NDP's and Liberals' policies to be similar, but are finding the Grits' focus less clear.
NDP Leader Liz Hanson is Yukoners' preference for premier. Thirty-six per cent of those polled would like to see the NDP leader in the premier's seat.
Darrell Pasloski, the current premier and leader of the Yukon Party, has won over 26 per cent of Yukoners hearts, according to the poll respondents, while Liberal Leader Arthur Mitchell is trailing in last again, with 19 per cent.
"She (Hanson) is the one people want to sit down and have coffee with,” said Larsen. "She has that personable quality the other two leaders don't seem to possess right now.”
On the other hand, there is always a "honeymoon” stage for new leaders, said Larsen.
"That might be helping.”
Larsen didn't sound surprised at the potential for the NDP to form government.
"We've seen it before,” she said. "Yukoners want change, and they're looking for which party can provide them with that. Is it the NDP?”
When it comes to why voters choose their candidate, 41 per cent said they base it on the party's policy, while 38 per cent base it on the person in their riding or the leader.
The older the respondent, the more likely they were to base it on policy.
Policy was more likely the key factor for those voting NDP (54 per cent) or Yukon Party (46 per cent), versus those voting for the Liberal party (22 per cent).
Thirty-two per cent of Liberal supporters said they were are voting for the person and 25 per cent do so because they don't like the current government.
On the other hand, 34 per cent of those not voting Liberal are doing so because they don't like the current leader.
Twenty-seven per cent of those not voting Yukon Party say it's because they do not trust the honesty of the party, while 26 per cent of those not voting NDP don't support the party's policies.
Larsen said one thing is for sure: it's not going to be a landslide vote.
"I think it comes down to who can do the most on this last weekend.”
DataPath Systems compiled the results by surveying 357 Yukoners. 306 web-based surveys and 51 telephone surveys were conducted with 219 Whitehorse residents and 138 non- Whitehorse residents last Sunday through Thursday.
Mike Travill, the Liberal party campaign chairperson, told the Star this morning that his party is questioning DataPath Systems' methodology, especially after what happened in the spring's federal election.
Less than a week before Yukoners went to the polls, the polling company announced that Larry Bagnell, then-Liberal MP, had a commanding 20-point lead over the Conservative Party's Ryan Leef. Leef was elected with a slim 132-vote margin over Bagnell.
Comments (11)
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mike on Oct 12, 2011 at 11:06 am
DataPath Systems called it accurately, within 2% for 3 of the parties and 5% of the leader. They have been just as accurate for the last 12 years. When are you going to learn not to shoot the messenger? Polls are the best way to find the issues and to find the best approach to address them. It looks like that Liberal loser is as competent to question their methodology as he is to run a campaign.
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Dorothy on Oct 12, 2011 at 2:21 am
So the polls were wrong eh? Congrats to all candidates whether you won or lost. It takes courage to put yourself out there.
Best of luck to all. I for one happen to like the results.
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Dorothy on Oct 11, 2011 at 5:36 am
Further to my last post. The question I have to ask Cully Robinson is why did he leave Carmacks.
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KC on Oct 11, 2011 at 12:59 am
Shame on the Whitehorse Star for running this questionable poll with such a sensational headline and accompanied by bold conclusions about what is says about the state of the race. To make matters worse you only have one paragraph about the shoddy methodology. No mention is even made of the poll's abysmal margin of error of +/-5.1 and its use of non random sampling. Polling is a science and even under ideal circumstances you have to be very careful about the conclusions that you draw from polls. Here you take a poll with questionable methodology at best and make very bold statements about the state of the race based on that poll. Sloppy reporting to say the least.
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Bob Bizman on Oct 10, 2011 at 3:26 am
The No Poppe Sandwich Shoppe and Arthur rocked with their poll - and you're right it was always pretty close. And he never claimed it was scientific!
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D Drake on Oct 10, 2011 at 2:06 am
I find it amusing how polls affect some persons particularly if their party is not doing to good.
I have been reading that the Liberal Party is running on a platform as honest, accountable and reliable. It seems that Cully Robinson has been telling people on the door steps to use visits as a job interview.
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Jonathan Colby on Oct 9, 2011 at 11:17 am
This poll is at best preposterously imprecise, and at worst a meddlesome influence on the voting public. It makes me wonder... Who's the lesser? The people who conduct the "test", or the people who publish the results?
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River Rat on Oct 9, 2011 at 3:39 am
The poll is hogwash!
No science or fairness in how the people are picked to provide their opinion.
And then to quote this person who does the poll as some sort of pundit?
I liked that poll at one of the local restaurants from years ago, it sure was a lot more accurate and fair compared to this piece of trash!
Come on Whitehorse Star you can do better than that!
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northerner1 on Oct 8, 2011 at 9:17 am
CBC won't even publish the datapath poll because they feel it would be irresponsible to do so given how unreliable it is.
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Doug Rutherford on Oct 7, 2011 at 10:16 am
I wonder whether or not it should be legal for polls to be published during elections. The day after the federal election, I was sitting at coffee break with 4 other people. One admitted that he thought that since Larry was going to get in, it was safe to vote to give the Green Party candidate a bit of support. The other 3 immediately admitted the same. They voted Green because it was "obvious" based on the poll that the candidate they actually wanted to win would do so. The potential for another 130 odd people doing so, and thus directly affecting the election, is something that should be considered.
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Francias Pillman on Oct 7, 2011 at 10:04 am
After their last embarrassing poll was proven wrong who in their right mind would even listen to these clowns anymore?