Whitehorse Daily Star

Poll escalates MP's support to 62 per cent

With no federal nor territorial election in sight, Yukoners are feeling more disconnected to any political party than usual, a recent poll suggests.

By Whitehorse Star on August 9, 2010

With no federal nor territorial election in sight, Yukoners are feeling more disconnected to any political party than usual, a recent poll suggests.

Still, the territorial Liberal Party has opened up a huge lead over the governing Yukon Party, and Yukon MP Larry Bagnell's support has eclipsed the 60-per-cent margin.

DataPath Systems of Marsh Lake surveyed 349 Yukoners, the company said today in releasing the results.

When asked about which party they would support in a territorial election, 39 per cent were undecided, up from 30 per cent in the spring, (with a typical average of about 20 per cent).

Unless Premier Dennis Fentie opts for an early election, the next vote is expected during the last half of 2011,when his five-year mandate will expire.

The same trend in non-committed voters is seen at the federal level, with 20 per cent of Yukoners undecided, up from 15 per cent in the spring and a typical average over the years of about 15 to 17 per cent.

"With so many Yukoners feeling undecided on political preferences, it is hard to say exactly how an election would turn out,” said Donna Larsen, a partner in DataPath Systems.

Typically, undecided voters either don't vote, or they vote in similar patterns to the decided voters, so polls are a good indication of election results, Larsen added.

However, with so many undecided voters, the trends become more important than the actual percentages.

At the territorial level, one trend is a continuous drop in Yukon Party support over the past four polls over the past year, from a high of 47 per cent support in the spring of 2009 to a low now of 22 per cent.

However, another trend is that no other single party is picking up the entire drop, as it is split between the two other parties.

Of the 25 percentage points lost by the Yukon Party, the Liberals were able to gain the most, up 12 points, from 27 per cent in spring of 2009 to 39 per cent now.

The NDP was up 10 points, from 16 per cent to 26 per cent.

Another consistent finding is that during this one-year timeframe, satisfaction with the Yukon Party has dropped from 31 per cent satisfaction to 13 per cent satisfaction.

Yet, neither the Liberal party nor the NDP has shown any significant increase in satisfaction.

The Yukon Party's satisfaction ratings, even with a large drop, are still similar with the satisfaction ratings for the Liberal party (14 per cent), and stronger than satisfaction with the NDP (six per cent).

"What this means is that the Yukon Party has not been able to regain the confidence of Yukoners, but neither has any other party.” Larsen said.

This is further supported by what the single issue Yukoners feel is the most important in the territory.

Concerns for the economy are at an all-time low, with only 12 per cent of Yukoners rating this as the top issue. This puts the economy in at the third highest ranked issue.

Above that, in the second position, is the environment (14 per cent), while the top item is poor government at 17 per cent.

Until this time last year, the economy and the environment held the top two positions, with little competition.

However, in the spring of 2009, poor government jumped to a top issue and peaked at 19 per cent last summer.

Another new issue for residents is social issues. Alcohol and drugs jumped to 11 per cent (from four to per cent in past polls) and other social issues rose from three per cent to seven per cent.

"Once people are feeling confident with the economy and environment, social issues start to rise as concerns,” Larsen said.

Nineteen per cent of Yukoners feel the economy is in healthy or peak condition, up from 10 per cent in the spring of 2009, and 19 per cent of Yukoners feel they are much better or somewhat better off than they were last year, up from 16 per cent in the spring of 2009.

"So, in general, Yukoners are happy and feeling OK with life in general, but are not attributing that confidence to the government,” Larsen wrote in her analysis of the results.

This is also true for federal issues, she added. Yukoners' support of Prime Minister Stephen Harper shows his approval rating dropping, from 48 per cent approving of his performance in October 2009 to only 31 per cent approval now. (Forty-nine per cent disapprove and 20 per cent don't know.)

That Harper is still Yukoners' top choice when it comes to which leader would make the best prime minister.

Thirty-three per cent support Harper, while only 31 per cent endorse support Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, who is scheduled to visit the Yukon later this month.

Support for the NDP's Jack Layton is at 17 per cent, while the Green Party's Elizabeth May is at 15 per cent.

The only shift over the past year had been an increase for the NDP's leader (up seven points) at the expense of the Green Party.

While Harper may have a slight lead over the other leaders, Bagnell, continues to see his support growing.

He now has a commanding lead, with 62 per cent of Yukon voters planning to support him if an election was held today.

Asked why they support their Yukon candidate, those supporting Bagnell were more likely to say it was due to "what they feel he can do for the Yukon” (56 per cent).

Those voting for other parties were more likely to feel it was because of "what their candidate could do for Canada” (75 per cent).

DataPath Systems; an independent Yukon-based market research company.

Three hundred forty telephone and online surveys were conducted with 182 Whitehorse residents and 158 non-Whitehorse residents July 15-26.

The data are weighted to accurately represent Yukoners based on the community they live in, their age and gender based on census data.

Percentages are statistically valid to plus or minus 5.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20 (95 per cent confidence). This was a non-commissioned study, paid for by DataPath Systems.

Comments (4)

Up 0 Down 0

Nile on Aug 13, 2010 at 12:13 am

Jack Malone how does Larry make a difference? Please I would like to know. Yes he works hard, but only at being seen. He's at every event shaking hands with some silly hat or costume so he can make sure that everyone notices him. He uses his baby like a guy uses a puppy at a park to get attention from the women. But it works for him. He has people fooled into thinking that he actually does things in Ottawa when in reality he's nothing but a yes man for Iggy. My bet would be that if he loses an election he'll be leaving the Yukon straight for some cushy liberal appointed job in Ontario. I would rather see a Conservative or NDP who spends less time flipping burgers and more time working for the Yukon.

Up 0 Down 0

Jack Malone on Aug 12, 2010 at 3:09 am

@ cassie. Where have you been for the past decade? Larry does "absouletly [sic] nothing for the yukon territory"? Are you crazy - I am not a big Liberal but you have to respect and appreciate Larry's work ethic in both the Yukon and Ottawa. He works tirelessly for Yukoners and he makes a difference. I guess you can vote for some Conservative or NDP hack in the next election.

Up 0 Down 0

cassie on Aug 10, 2010 at 8:27 am

Why is bagnells support skyrocketing? he does absouletly nothing for the yukon territory. I still shake my head in wonder why yukoners vote bagnell

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JC on Aug 9, 2010 at 10:33 am

Election candidates don't run on a "leadership" promise anymore. That's a sure loss. Its now "what can I give you". Thats why its, NDP one year, Liberal another and Conservative yet another. No matter what one party offers, the other will offer more. They generally win. They no longer care where the money comes from (it has no value anymore anyway. Just print more when needed.) Debt and deficit has become an important part of our Constitution and yes, Charter of "rights". I think the voters should demand that every party present a budget plan before every election and should be held to it if they form the next government.

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