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MP Larry Bagnell

Poll drops MP's support by 15 per cent

The territory's Liberal and NDP opposition parties are in a statistical dead heat when it comes to voters' preferences,

By Jason Unrau on December 29, 2010

The territory's Liberal and NDP opposition parties are in a statistical dead heat when it comes to voters' preferences, according to a DataPath Systems December poll, while the environment and government are tied for the top issue among Yukoners.

Approval ratings for all three territorial parties – Yukon Party, Liberals and NDP – have increased, but if the election were held tomorrow, of decided voters, 33 per cent would cast their votes for the Liberals.

In the New Democrats' camp would be 30 per cent of decided voters and 24 per cent for the Yukon Party, while 27 per cent of those polled remain undecided.

When respondents were asked how well the individual parties are performing, the Yukon Party and Liberals are tied with 16 per cent who rated both parties the highest on a scale of one to five (one being poor, five being excellent).

While 13 per cent of those polled awarded the New Democrats top marks for their performance, the NDP experienced the biggest gain of the three parties, up from just six per cent in the summer.

In the last survey results, reported in early August, the Liberals enjoyed 39 per cent of decided voters' support, the New Democrats 26 per cent and the Yukon Party 22 per cent.

Widely popular federal MP Larry Bagnell's support among voters is down 15 per cent; however, Bagnell's huge 62 per cent approval rating in the summertime is still a more-than-respectable 47 per cent today.

"(Bagnell's support of the gun registry) hurt him a little bit,” DataPath pollster Donna Larsen said in an interview today. "But not very much.”

And today, Bagnell has corralled more statistical support for himself in the territory than polling results for the 2008 general election, in which 45 per cent of those who voted, picked Bagnell.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's August visit to the territory – part of what's become Harper's annual "sovereignty sojourn” to the North – helped him somewhat in the pool, Larsen noted.

"Harper's approval rating here has recovered to 35 per cent after dropping in late 2009 and early 2010,” she said.

And 37 per cent of those polled prefer Harper as the leader of the federal government.

But that should not hurt Bagnell in the next general election, as 56 per cent of respondents base their federal vote on what they believe the candidate can do for the Yukon, as opposed to 44 per cent who vote for their MP based on what it could mean for Canada.

Support for the federal Conservatives in the territory has risen from 17 per cent to 23 per cent, and the NDP enjoyed a marginal increase from seven to 10 per cent.

But the left-wing party trails far behind the federal Green Party, which garnered 20 per cent support from Yukon voters, according to the poll.

Larsen said Yukoners are much more optimistic this year, based on the fact more than 20 per cent of those polled believe they are much better off this year than last.

"Only 12 per cent feel they are worse off, which is better than seen since the end of 2007,” Larsen said.

"And part of that might be contributed to strong feelings about the state of the economy.”

During 2009, just 10 per cent of Yukoners felt the economy was in healthy or peak condition, but that is now up to 22 per cent.

"At the same time, the economy is no longer considered to be one of the top issues facing the Yukon,” Larsen said.

"The economy was the top issue for the past several years, however, by late 2009, it dropped to third position as concern over poor government grew.”

Only seven per cent of Yukoners rated it the number one issue facing the territory, while government and the environment are tied for top spot, rating 14 per cent respectively among respondents.

Number three is education and schools.

DataPath Systems is an independent Yukon-based market research company.

Telephone surveys were conducted with 169 Whitehorse residents and 135 non-Whitehorse residents Dec. 2-15

The data are weighted to accurately represent Yukoners based on the community they live in, their age and gender.

Percentages are statistically valid to +/- 5.5 per cent 19 times out of 20 (95 per cent confidence).

The non-commissioned study was paid for by DataPath Systems.

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