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Kris Fuhr, Tony Palmer

Pipeline is a decade off, executives say

Don't forget about Denali.

By Chuck Tobin on October 16, 2008

Don't forget about Denali.

More often than not, when people think of the Alaska Highway pipeline, they think of TransCanada Pipelines Ltd. and its offspring, Foothills Pipe Lines Ltd.

It was Foothills, after all, which led the charge for the project back in the late '70s, until the economy pushed it off the rails.

It is Foothills which still holds the Canadian permits for the pipeline.

And it was TransCanada which received the recent nod from Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and her state legislature to advance research on the feasibility of a pipeline from Prudhoe Bay to Alberta along the Alaska Highway.

Alaska has promised a $500-million contribution to help TransCanada with the work required, while the pipeline company is putting up $100 million.

TransCanada executive Tony Palmer was in Whitehorse for the Opportunities North '08 conference to explain how well-positioned the company is to handle the massive undertaking.

TransCanada, he said, is moving at full speed toward the 2010 deadline to make its case as the company of choice to build the 2,760-kilometre pipeline - if the project turns out to be viable.

Denali, a company formed by two of Alaska's big three oil and gas producers - BP and ConocoPhillips, is right now going through the exact same with an aim of edging out TransCanada, and it's using its own money, Kris Fuhr told conference participants.

Just like TransCanada, Denali expects to be in a position by mid-2010 to tell the state whether the project is viable, how much it will cost and how many customers it has lined up to ship product.

And just like Palmer reassured the audience about TransCanada's expertise in pipeline construction, Fuhr emphasized both BP and ConocoPhillips also have extensive experience with pipelines.

In an interview afterward, however, Fuhr did acknowledge that because of TransCanada's long history with the Alaska Highway proposal, it has a bit of a head start.

But BP and ConocoPhillips aren't sharing a $600-million investment to finish second, he suggested.

Fuhr said just like TransCanada, Denali has already hit the ground running, and will be doing an extensive amount of research up and down the Alaska Highway route over the next 18 months.

It's already started, he said.

Both Denali and TransCanada are heading toward the "open season."

The open season, as it known in the pipeline business, is the time of truth.

It's when pipeline companies lay their cards on the table, and set out what their costs will be to build the pipeline, based on all the research.

That cost will drive the price for shipping gas, and gas companies will be invited to buy room on the pipeline to move their product to market.

At the end of the open season, the pipeline is either viable or not, based on the economics.

Ironically, BP and ConocoPhillips are two of the largest producers on the North Slope, and their participation will be required for any pipeline proposal to be viable, even TransCanada's.

So why doesn't Denali just tell TransCanada to take a hike, that they won't ever ship their gas on its pipeline, come hell or high water?

It doesn't work that way, the Denali executive explained in a interview after his presentation.

It's all about economics.

While Denali fully believes it can bring forward a superior pipeline proposal, at the end of the day, TransCanada may have a stronger project and a lower cost to ship gas, Fuhr pointed out.

He acknowledged there is a huge amount of work to do to get ready for the open season midway through 2010.

While the estimated cost of construction, which key to the open season process - doesn't have to be down to the penny, it does have to be on the money, Fuhr suggested.

"But we do that all the time."

Palmer told Opportunities North participants the pipeline is about economics, but also opportunities.

The economic opportunities are huge, but he emphasized the Alaska Highway pipeline is not a slam dunk.

It needs to compete with a global natural gas market that is becoming more and more competitive.

A successful project, he said, will require the support from all levels of governments; first nation, municipal, territorial and federal.

The Mackenzie Valley pipeline proposal, he pointed out, is now in its fifth year of review inside the National Energy Board process.

A successful Alaska Highway project will require timely and positive support from Ottawa, he said.

The pipeline is not inevitable, he said.

Palmer said if North Slope gas can't compete for its market share, the customers will simply get their natural gas from somewhere else, because it's available somewhere else.

"That's the way the world works."

Both Palmer and Fuhr predict that if the pipeline project comes out as viable, under the best-case scenario, it wouldn't be pumping gas for at least another 10 years.

Comments (4)

Up 0 Down 0

Cynthia rigers on Oct 20, 2008 at 1:49 pm

The economy in the yukon is bust, if you dont work for YTG your barely scrapping to get by. The talk of town, was this pipeline and the money it would bring in.. but i dont see it happening. There is too much red tape within the government, the caribou porcupine herd contraversy, and the high rate of living cost in the yukon. We need something to jumpstart this economy, I love the yukon, but our kids are leaving for work/school down south. The yukon is in a tough time and will be for a while unless something big comes our way.

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John S. O'Day USA on Oct 19, 2008 at 6:21 pm

I hate to disappoint my Canadian friends in the Yukon. With reference to the Natural gas pipeline it will not come through Canada for a variety of resaons. First there is not an LNG Plant on the North Slope. Second the reason for considering the route through your country has changed drastically in the last 6 months. Third the present financial world crisis. Fourth, the need for a Federal Energy Regulator Commission permit it take 2 years to get, ConocoPhillips has already applied for 6 months ago.

Stay warm winter is here.

A friend from Alaska.

John

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Michel Dupont on Oct 17, 2008 at 1:30 am

By the time the oil flows into that pipeline, the demand for oil will be darsticly reduced by the means of alternative energy. We are at a point where the big oil should study the current and future trends. If we all can get by without the pipeline, then scarp the project, the environment and wildlife will be thankfull for it.

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Mike Peltier on Oct 16, 2008 at 11:38 am

Don't count on a pipeline. The oil companies already have a Liquefied Natural Gas facility at Prudhoe Bay. Within 10 years the Beaufort Sea will be ice free for much of the year. Why should they build a pipeline and sell the gas to the lower 48 when it's significantly more profitable to expand the Prudhoe LNG facility and sell it to the rest of the world?

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