A new survey shows the impact of American legislation aimed at creating standardized identification for crossing the border by Jan. 1, 2008 will be most felt by casual border crossers.

A poll conducted by Zogby International found 68 per cent of the Americans surveyed said they would be unlikely to purchase the appropriate documentation to cross the border as of 2008.

Fifty-four per cent of the Canadians questioned agreed they would be unlikely to invest in an identification card that would solely allow them to cross the Canada/U.S. border.

The results indicated 34.5 per cent of the surveyed Americans, who do not currently hold a passport, expected the changes meant they would be less likely to cross the border.

Similarly, 29.2 per cent of polled Canadians said they would be less likely to enter the United States if they were required to have a passport or a new type of security document.

The survey was conducted in mid-February and questioned 1,214 Americans living in one of the 11 U.S. states along the Canadian border and residents of Wisconsin. The poll also randomly selected 502 Canadians.

Patti Balsillie, chief executive officer of the Tourism Industry Association of the Yukon, said recently the numbers in the Zogby survey illustrate an aspect of proposed requirements that often gets overlooked.

She told the Star most long-haul travellers, such as those getting off cruise ships in Skagway or entering the Yukon by RV, understand identification requirements and are very likely to already have passports.

'The folks we're attracting really are already savvy travellers,' said Balsillie. 'Long-haul destination travellers usually do have passports.'

It will be Canadians and Americans just wanting to cross the border for a weekend of fishing or shopping who will be most affected, she said.

Border communities in the Yukon and Alaska are the ones most likely to feel the impact of the proposed requirement, which is contained in the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative, she said.

It will also likely be the border communities that will be least inclined to make the change, said Balsillie, because their travel is generally for leisure, not business.

'The North will see a huge economic and social impact,' agreed Economic Development Minister Jim Kenyon. 'Ball tournaments, shopping, skiing will all be affected.'

A 2005 study by the Canadian Tourism Commission into the potential impacts of the passport requirements on Canada's tourism industry found currently only 44 per cent of same-day travellers from the United States present a passport at the border.

Approximately 60 per cent of Canadians use passports as identification for same-day travel.

The Canadian study also found same-day travellers and short-haul travellers by automobile are among the least likely to currently hold passports and to readily convert to using a passport to cross the border prior to 2008.

The commission's research estimated for the purpose of leisure activities, same-day travellers are only 10 per cent more likely to obtain a passport.

Meanwhile, those travelling for business are 50 per cent more likely to get their passport prior to 2008.

It is also expected approximately 46 per cent of same-day Canadian travellers would leave getting a passports until the last minute.

Of American travellers in the same category, 69 per cent are expected to wait until after the requirement's implementation to get their proper documentation.

In a report prepared by the Conference Board of Canada, it is predicted 3.5 million fewer cross-border visits from Canada to the United States can be expected because of confusion regarding the identification requirements even before the 2008 deadline.

Also, seven million fewer American visits to Canada will likely result leading into the implementation of proposed measures, said the study.

The impact on each nation's economy, according to the Canadian Tourism Commission, will be approximately $785 million in the United States and $1.7 billion in Canada, between now and 2008.

Balsillie said more research needs to be done on the exact impact there will be on the Yukon and Alaska.

There needs to be a better understanding of who holds passports in the two regions, where they live and how they travel, she said.

'We haven't done any kind of specific work on this,' she said.

However, it is known approximately 77 per cent of all the visitors to the Yukon are American.

Also according to the Yukon government's 2004 Exit Survey, of the 251,704 visitors to the territory from June 1 to Sept. 31, 2004, 90 per cent defined the purpose of their trip as pleasure or personal. Only seven per cent were in the Yukon for business.

Also during that summer, 51 per cent, or over $38 million of the spending was generated by Americans.

The impact of the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative will be real, said Kenyon.

'It's a major, major problem.'

Kenyon is involved in the lobby to get Washington to reconsider the requirement through his role as vice-president of the Pacific Northwest Economic Region (PNWER).

PNWER is a joining of public and private representatives from the Yukon, British Columbia, Alberta, Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington state. The region has approximately 18 million residents and an annual gross regional product of $697 billion.

Kenyon said his role in the group is helping ensure the Yukon has a seat at the table in making the territory's concerns known in the American capital regarding the identification requirement.

He added it gives the Yukon the clout of being part of an economic region and having the support of American representatives who have similar concerns.

'We are convinced that this will have a significant impact on the regional economy,' said Matt Morrison, executive director of PNWER. 'What we need is a common sense, bi-national approach.'

The requirements proposed in the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative came in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

The initiative indicates all travellers to and from the Americas, which include the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, Bermuda, Central America and South America, will soon be required to carry a passport or another yet to be determined secure document.

The purpose is to create a standardized piece of identification that establishes the bearer's identity and citizenship. It will be become a legalized requirement to enter or re-enter the United States and is meant to increase security at the border.

'You would think that it should take less to cross the border between the United States and Canada then it did to go from West Berlin to East Berlin during the height of the Cold War,' said Washington State Representative Jeff Morris.

Morrison said he is not convinced the changes will make America any more secure than it already is.

Fifty-six per cent of Zogby's American respondents agreed with Morrison, citing the change is an unnecessary step to keep United States safe from terrorists.

'We aren't accomplishing a lot by looking at passports,' said Kenyon, adding all the individuals involved in the 9/11 attacks had entered the States with passports.

Tourism and Culture Minister Elaine Taylor told the Star the real push moving up to the deadline will be to get the American government to consider using an already-existing form of identification and perhaps just looking at ways to make it more secure.

The Zogby poll found 49 per cent of American respondents and 30 per cent of the Canadians indicated they would not be willing to pay anything for a new form of ID.

Fifty-seven per cent of Canadians were willing to consider paying, but not more than $50. In the United States, 29.6 per cent of the respondents were willing to pay $25 or less.

But to scrap the proposal of a new identification card and solely focus on passports is also not the most beneficial option, said Taylor.

For a family of four to get passports just to cross the international border would cost hundreds of dollars, she said. It would only work as a deterrent for people getting off cruise ships and visiting the territory, she said.

'It's got to be accessible and it has to be affordable,' she said.