Whitehorse Daily Star

Opponents believe they can catch MP

A local poll puts Liberal Larry Bagnell in the driver's seat to remain the Yukon's MP ,but with almost one-third of the respondents undecided, the two closest parties believe there's room to catch up.

By Whitehorse Star on June 22, 2004

A local poll puts Liberal Larry Bagnell in the driver's seat to remain the Yukon's MP ,but with almost one-third of the respondents undecided, the two closest parties believe there's room to catch up.

DataPath Systems of Marsh Lake released a poll conducted from last Friday to yesterday, asking Yukoners who they'll vote for in next Monday's election.

According to DataPath owner Donna Larsen, voters were given the list of all six candidates in the Yukon and asked to pick one.

Of the decided voters, 43 per cent want Bagnell to have a second term as the MP. In second place was NDP candidate Pam Boyde, at 27 per cent. Conservative James Hartle checked in third at 24 per cent.

The Green Party's Phillipe LeBlond scored four per cent and Sean Davey of the Marijuana Party scooped up two per cent.

No one mentioned Geoff Capp, the territory's Christian Heritage Party candidate.

However, of all the people surveyed, 31 per cent have not yet made up their minds.

NDP campaign manager Kathy Hanifan said the undecided vote is the big figure in the survey and she believes Boyde can draw from that to defeat Bagnell.

'To me, it represents people are very fed up with the Liberals and people are leery of (Conservative boss Stephen) Harper,' she said.

However, Hartle's campaign manager, Fred Jennex, believes the undecided is a big pot where his candidate will find more votes.

'We're fairly certain the undecided will follow (to Hartle),' said Jennex.

He added that the numbers do not accurately reflect what the Conservatives are hearing in the Yukon.

In a press release, Larsen admitted there is a large major of error (+/- 8.6 per cent, 19 times of 20) in her poll. However, with the gap between Bagnell and Boyde, the pollster still believes this poll has made it clear the Liberal will win.

In total, 128 Yukoners were surveyed last weekend.

'It's a very small sampling,' noted Hanifan.

Larsen admits the sample is smaller than the 300 her company usually interviews. However, with the election a week away, she wanted to get it done, and it was hard to find people home on the weekend with the good weather.

She also admitted the margin of error is high for her, but overall, Larsen is comfortable with the results.

Overall, the national party and its policies were the reason 50 per cent of decided Yukoners picked the party they are supporting. For 30 per cent of the decided voters, the individual candidate is the main reason for their choice.

Another 10 per cent picked their candidate because they don't like the current federal government and an additional 10 per cent picked an 'other' reason.

However, among Bagnell's supporters, it appears the MP himself is the big reason for their interest. Sixty per cent of Liberal supporters said the individual candidate is the main reason they'll be voting Liberal.

Another 34 per cent said the party and its policies are the reason for voting Liberal and six per cent picked other.

Of New Democrat Boyde's supporters, 63 per cent want to vote for her because of the national party and its policies.

Among NDP voters, 20 per cent will vote for the party in the Yukon because they don't like the current federal government and 13 per cent are doing so because they like Boyde. Four per cent picked other as their reason for choosing the NDP.

Like Boyde, the national party and its policies is the biggest reason people are choosing Conservative candidate Hartle.

Another 22 per cent are picking the Conservatives because they don't like the Liberal government and 13 per cent selected other (the reason given for half of those was the federal gun registry).

Seven per cent want Hartle elected specifically because of him.

Of the national leaders, DataPath found Yukon's choice for the leader they felt would be the best prime minister was none of the above. In the survey, 29 per cent felt none of the leaders would make the best prime minister.

Of the current leaders, Liberal Paul Martin was tops among Yukoners at 28 per cent. NDP boss Jack Layton was next at 22 per cent and Harper of the Conservative party was third at 19 per cent.

DataPath also quizzed people on what the major issues are for them in this campaign.

The choice of leader was most likely based on social issues (61 per cent), Larsen's release said. Economic policy at 31 per cent was the second reason and the environment was the third reason for picking the leader, at 19 per cent.

The top issue for Yukoners during this campaign is the economy at 24 per cent. Health care was at 22 per cent.

Of just the undecided voters, 27 per cent said health care was the most important issue, with 19 per cent picking 'other', 17 per cent selecting economy, and 10 per cent each choosing education and unemployment.

As well, 15 per cent of Yukoners indicated they are not planning to vote, with 29 per cent of those non-voters under 35.

Whitehorse residents are more likely to not vote, 19 per cent, rather than five per cent not wanting to cast ballots in the communities.

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