Whitehorse Daily Star

NDP support has surged in the last year

If an election was held today, the NDP would narrowly win the popular vote and possibly the election, according to a poll.

By Whitehorse Star on March 14, 2005

If an election was held today, the NDP would narrowly win the popular vote and possibly the election, according to a poll.

DataPath Systems, a Marsh Lake-based pollster, released the results of the poll it conducted in January and February.

The poll showed that of those surveyed, 33 per cent would vote for the New Democrats if the election was held today.

The governing Yukon Party was a close second in the poll, with 31 per cent favouring the party of Premier Dennis Fentie.

The Liberal party finished third in the survey, at 23 per cent.

Thirteen per cent said they'd vote an 'other' party.

Donna Larsen, an owner of DataPath, said today people were asked which party they would vote for if the leaders were Fentie of the Yukon Party, Todd Hardy of the NDP and Pat Duncan of the Liberals.

There were other questions about who people would support for the Liberal leadership and what party they would vote for if the person they chose was leading the Grits and Dave Sloan was leading the NDP.

When Kirk Cameron, whose name was on the list, announced he wasn't running for the Liberal leadership, Larsen pulled those questions out of the survey. The answers that were gathered before the plug was pulled will not be released.

Larsen said the vote for an 'other' party was not surprising.

'We always get that number around 10 per cent,' she said.

Larsen said the people picking the 'other' party tend to be those who are disgruntled with the current parties and hope that something better comes along.

Compared to results from one year ago, this survey shows a big surge for the NDP, while the Yukon Party is remaining static.

In the survey taken one year ago, the NDP scored 22 per cent and was in third place. This year's survey shows an increase of 11 per cent.

The Yukon Party's percentage did not change from last year. However, the Liberal party saw a three-per-cent drop from 26 per cent in 2004. The biggest drop from last year was the vote for 'other', which went down eight points from 21 per cent.

Larsen indicated in a press release that if an election was held today, the NDP would stand a good chance of doing well because much of its support is in Whitehorse, where 11 of the 18 ridings are found.

In the capital, 33 per cent would vote for the NDP, while the Yukon Party's support was at 27 per cent and the Liberals were sitting at 25 per cent.

The Yukon Party's numbers shine outside of Whitehorse, where they scored 42 per cent of respondents. The NDP's total stayed at 33 per cent, while the Liberal figure was down at 16 per cent. The other party category received eight per cent.

In the survey, Larsen found one large group that is definitely not backing the sitting government.

The government employees who were questioned favoured the New Democrats. Of those civil servants who were asked, 44 would vote for the NDP, 24 per cent for the Liberals and 23 per cent for the Yukon Party.

Larsen also found large differences in voting preferences by gender.

For women, the NDP is by far the top choice, with 46 per cent supporting the party.

Next is the Yukon Party, with support from 26 per cent of women. Seventeen per cent of women would vote for the Liberals and 11 per cent prefer an 'other' party.

Among men, the Yukon Party is the top choice at 36 per cent, with the Liberals next at 28, 20 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the 'other' party category.

'We've seen that before,' Larsen said of the divide between genders.

The respondents were also asked how they rated the Yukon Party government. The release noted that while the numbers are up from last year, they're nothing like the approval rating in 2003.

The people were asked to rate the government on a scale on one to five, with five being the best.

In total, 21 per cent gave the government either a four or a five. That was up from 17 per cent last year, but down compared to the 27 per cent in 2003.

DataPath also asked the respondents what they thought are the biggest issues facing Yukoners.

The economy is still tops on the list, with 30 per cent stating it is the top issue, down from 42 per cent last year.

Tied for second on the list of issues is unemployment, which was at 12 per cent, down more than half from 26 per cent last year.

The category that saw the biggest jump was the issue of poor government, which quadrupled from three per cent last year to 12 per cent, tied with unemployment.

Other major issues included: lack of industry seven per cent; drugs and alcohol five per cent; health care four per cent; and pipeline three per cent.

The survey also asked Yukoners what they thought about the territory's economy.

The respondents were asked to rate the economy to be in one of the following conditions: critical, serious, stable, healthy and peak.

The survey found that 13 per cent of Yukoners think the economy is in critical condition, down 20 per cent from one year earlier, when it was at 33 per cent.

The top category remains serious, with 39 per cent of those surveyed, although that was down from 42 per cent, which it was at in 2004.

The number of Yukoners who feel the economy is in stable condition was up to 35 per cent from 22 per cent last year.

As well, 12 per cent believe the economy is in either peak or healthy condition, up 10 per cent from last year.

This survey was not commissioned by anyone.

In total, 300 Yukoners, 150 in the city and 150 in the communities, were polled.

The survey is valid to plus or minus 5.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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