NDP elbows Liberals into third place
Yukoners' preferences in territorial politics are mirroring Canadians' federal leanings, but DataPath Systems polster Donna Larsen says it's more coincidence than conformity.
Yukoners' preferences in territorial politics are mirroring Canadians' federal leanings, but DataPath Systems polster Donna Larsen says it's more coincidence than conformity.
Currently, federal New Democrats trail their Conservative rivals by five per cent, and the federal Liberals are in a distant third.
The margin among territorial parties, however, is much tighter, says a DataPath poll released Friday.
Here, the conservative Yukon Party is the party of choice among decided voters, garnering 32 per cent support – just two points ahead of the Yukon NDP and seven ahead of the Liberals, who bring up the rear with 25 per cent.
"(Outgoing premier) Dennis Fentie has just recovered from a bad year; he faced a lot of criticism and a lot of bad press,” Larsen said in an interview this morning.
"So I don't think (our numbers) are following a federal trend. It's more of what's happening in the Yukon.”
Nationwide, support for the federal Conservatives has remained strong through three years; however, the Yukon Party has dropped to the low 20s.
While Fentie announced he would not defend his leadership as this DataPath poll was concluding, Larsen said the May 28 Yukon Party leadership convention is likely behind conservative voters realigning with that party.
"Deep down, they were still a party person, but they fell into the don't know category,” said Larsen.
"But at the tail end of this poll, Fentie resigned and those people ... came back into the party. That's the biggest influence more than anything else.”
For the Opposition Liberals and their leader, Arthur Mitchell, this poll shows an eight point swing from December 2010, when that party was leading the polls, the NDP was close behind at 30 per cent and the ruling Yukon Party was in the doldrums at 24 per cent.
And the NDP, which knocked the Liberals out of second spot, has been fairly stable in recent polls – the party was polling 30 per cent in December – but are up from the low 20s and even high teens experienced in 2009.
For the first time, Willard Phelps and his fledgling United Citizens Party were included in the DataPath poll and they garnered five per cent support, behind "other” at eight per cent.
Asked why the new Yukon Green Party was not included in the survey, Larsen said it was because the party did not have a declared candidate.
To date, Phelps is the only United Citizens Party member to announce he would run in the next territorial election, which must be called no later than Oct. 14. The territorial Greens do not have any declared candidates.
"You could probably attribtute most of the ‘other' is looking at Green,” Larsen added.
Decided voters in the Yukon are also on the rise, with 79 per cent for this poll compared to 73 per cent in December and just 61 per cent last June.
But one third of those surveyed said they would consider voting for another party if the leader were different.
Poll results were determined by surveying 273 Whitehorse residents and 125 rural residents. They are accurate 19 times out of 20 with a range of statistic validity between plus or minus 4.8 per cent.
Larsen said the poll was non-commissioned and part of DataPath's quarterly review of voting preferences in the Yukon.
Comments (1)
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john jack on May 3, 2011 at 12:59 am
Now get rid of the gun registry!!!!