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Dr. Brendan Hanley

Modelling charted up to 7,000 virus cases

The Yukon currently has no active cases of COVID-19, but officials are urging Yukoners to remain vigilant while plans for an incremental reopening are underway.

By Gabrielle Plonka on May 6, 2020

The Yukon currently has no active cases of COVID-19, but officials are urging Yukoners to remain vigilant while plans for an incremental reopening are underway.

“The measures we continue to take both individually and as a collective are addressing the spread of the virus, and these measures are clearly working,” Premier Sandy Silver told a media briefing Tuesday afternoon.

The premier said his government is cognizant that pandemic measures have had a severe impact on Yukon businesses and individuals.

“We know that our economy has been significantly impacted by the measures we have taken to date,” Silver said.

“It has been great to see businesses across the territory demonstrating leadership with this ever-evolving situation.”

Several businesses across the territory have begun reopening in the last week with safety precautions in place.

Official guidelines for safe management of customer traffic are being developed and will be available soon, Silver said.

The Yukon’s food trucks and farmers’ markets have been provided with guidelines for reopening and can be expected to be operational this summer.

Golf courses and recycling facilities are also beginning to tentatively open their doors.

The Raven Recycling Society announced earlier this week that it’s now accepting cardboard, boxboard and brown paper bags at the public drop-off.

It is still not accepting mixed paper, plastics, tin, wax cartons nor refundables.

Good lines of communication are pivotal between business owners and staff, to ensure that all employees feel safe and ready to return to work, said the premier and Dr. Brendan Hanley, the chief medical officer.

“A well-structured workplace at this COVID-conscious time is a safe workplace,” Hanley said.

“That’s a workplace we could consider safe, even for people who might have underlying medical conditions.”

That means ensuring physical distancing rules are set up for staff within the workplace and that people who are sick stay home.

Silver said provisions for workers who might need to remain at home, while their workplace reopens, is on the mind of government.

The Yukon widened testing requirements last week and has seen a small surge in the number of tests conducted since then.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the Yukon had conducted 1,041 tests.

Of those, 1,012 were negative, with 11 confirmed cases that have all now recovered. Eight tests are pending.

While he is encouraged by the stable number of cases in the Yukon, Hanley said, he is still wary of relaxing restrictions too soon.

“To see those numbers stabilize is an affirmation so far that we are doing the right thing,” Hanley said.

“It’s a cause for celebration, but not relaxation.”

He said the Yukon is not yet in the clear, and a second wave of the virus is still a potential threat to the territory.

“One of my fears is that we will move too quickly trying to get back to normal,” Hanley said.

Yukoners will see a slow and incremental lift on restrictions, he explained. A timeline for relaxation is not yet available.

Earlier this month, Hanley said that the Yukon is likely a month away from seeing real changes in the direction of normalcy.

The Yukon has been modelling the effects of public health restrictions on the potential spread of the virus. Hanley explained that modelling is not intended as a prediction of the future, but describes a range of possibilities in different scenarios.

Modelling is made more difficult because of the Yukon’s unique position, with not yet enough cases to fall on the curve.

Examining the risk of imported cases was one focus for modelling, Hanley said.

One case of COVID-19 arriving in the Yukon in March could have resulted in 2,500 cases by May 1, while 10 cases arriving could have resulted in 7,000 cases and 1,000 hospitalizations.

“Our health system could easily be overwhelmed in the first scenario, not to mention the second,” Hanley said.

“Instead of being overwhelmed, we remain at a level where COVID is hardly visible …. We are in an enviable position and we want to stay here.”

Comments (22)

Up 18 Down 15

Donovan on May 11, 2020 at 1:26 pm

@nicki "Good advice from a real doctor, not a medical bureaucrat answering to politicians"
That is EXACTLY what he is. The Chief Medical Examiner is an appointed position...not an elected position. This means he follows his political masters will without fear of public scrutiny. He only has to worry if his position will be there with the NEXT guberment. This is unacceptable. Any position that hold enough power to shut down the territory should be accountable to the public. This should be an ELECTED position.

Up 33 Down 11

Frustrated in Yukon on May 11, 2020 at 5:57 am

I remember reading an article by Keith Halliday in the Yukon News in August 2019 where he stated ” Yukon has a higher percentage of Government workers than communist China.” His article went on to point out that “according to statistics, in 2018 43.7% of total employment in the Yukon was government jobs, which is more than double the Canadian average.” During this past Friday’s press conference, Dr.Hanley said the territory is “50/50 split on whether we are opening the territory too soon, or not soon enough.” I wonder what percentage of those opposed to opening are still making their full salaries or wages as Federal Government, Yukon Government, or City of Whitehorse employees? I also wonder if that 50/50 split would change at all if suddenly all of these fully paid government and municipal workers, who are currently working from home and are unable to do their jobs properly, were instead temporarily laid off like everyone else in the private sector and had to go on CERB and start relying on an income of $2000 a month. Would this possibly affect the 50/50 split? Would this affect the government approval rating? Would this affect the pace of the plan to re-open the economy?

Up 15 Down 15

Nicky on May 10, 2020 at 7:02 pm

@BnR, People who use internet resources like Google Scholar to read studies and watch interviews with actual doctors working with Covid, do know a lot more about the real-world situation than bureaucrats with outdated medical degrees who only answer to LIB politicians taking their orders from globalists in Ottawa.

Up 15 Down 16

Nicki on May 9, 2020 at 12:13 am

Good advice from a real doctor, not a medical bureaucrat answering to politicians.
The appropriate policy, "based on fundamental biology and the evidence already in hand," is "a more focused strategy."
That would be to "protect the known vulnerable, self-isolate the mildly sick and open most workplaces and small businesses with some prudent large-group precautions."
"This would allow the essential socializing to generate immunity among those with minimal risk of serious consequence, while saving lives, preventing overcrowding of hospitals and limiting the enormous harms compounded by continued total isolation," he said.
"Let’s stop underemphasizing empirical evidence while instead doubling down on hypothetical models. Facts matter."
https://www.wnd.com/2020/04/stanford-doctor-5-reasons-stop-panic-end-total-isolation/

Up 18 Down 12

Mark on May 8, 2020 at 10:45 pm

Well, first wave of panic comes to a close. We should have a few months of calmness before the second fear mongering wave hits closer to the U.S. election.

Up 42 Down 23

melba on May 8, 2020 at 4:11 pm

I think this episode is going to go down the most scandalous misuse of governance in history. It will not be forgotten for many decades. 'The year the world governments shut down their countries for a virus that really wasn't all that bad after all.'

Next thing you know, my comment here will be stricken from the public realm because the government has decided it is not allowed.

There was a time to take action and exercise extreme caution, and it's pretty apparent that time has passed and we should be well on our way to re-opening and limiting unnecessary damage. Get on with it!

Up 43 Down 11

BB on May 8, 2020 at 4:04 pm

This is ridiculous. Our $150 billion so far, $258 billion deficit for 2020, (uncharted territory, Canada has never built up debt like this before - not even close); is going to affect public health more than this virus has, by far.

The sooner we get back to normal while being conscious of the virus, the less damage will be added to the already considerable but not yet realized damage to our society, community and economy.

Up 32 Down 13

DMZ on May 7, 2020 at 10:32 pm

Oh, please. What's the motivation for trotting out this dubious model at this point, unless it's to rationalize keeping us in purgatory for more unspecified terms? Saskatchewan had a model that thousands were going to die. It was the first province to open up. Somehow I doubt that in a territory that only a couple of months ago said the numbers didn't justify a dialysis machine suddenly has the resources to conduct bona fide models.

When all this is over and the analysis starts coming in, some tropes we've been living with will become notorious. I think the modeling will be right up there. At this point, governments risk the perception of abusing them.

Up 33 Down 0

Bud McGee on May 7, 2020 at 4:53 pm

@ BnR Medical doctors do not develop mathematical models. It's not what they are trained in. Mathematical models are developed by mathematicians and computer scientists with advice on variables that go into the model coming from scientists such as epidemiologists, virologists, etc. I don't think the Chief Medical Officer of the Yukon develops "the models" or is even qualified to develop "a model".

Up 36 Down 6

Groucho d' North on May 7, 2020 at 2:11 pm

There are typically a range of models developed to assist planning for most kinds of disaster. Based on what is known at the time they were created. Forest fires, floods and viral infections all do as they please and grow and shrink as a multitude of influences are presented. So there will be a worst case scenario, a best case and somewhere in the middle will be what ends up happening scenario.
People are the wild card in that despite all the warnings and previous history on a subject, people decide what they can and cannot do like having a campfire during a no-burn order, or gathering in groups to cheer on their favourite team.
Elected officials should be removed completely from making public statements on threats and how the public should react, leave it to the pros who have the training and can answer questions without the spin of government interests.

Up 44 Down 38

Fred Norris on May 7, 2020 at 11:56 am

Right on cue, as Bloomberg school of public health, Dr. Fauci, the IMHE, and the WHO all attempt to walk back their “models”. You know, the models that got it all wrong. The models that shut down society....
Just be honest, Doc Hanley. Y’all got it wrong. Admit it. That should be the first step in reopening. Now can we all get back to reality?

Up 49 Down 30

Yukoner '71 on May 7, 2020 at 9:30 am

This situation is the Liberals wet dream come true. They have awarded themselves undisputed and almost complete government control over almost every detail of peoples lives and private business activities, there is almost total financial dependence by the general population on government handouts and overnight they have ruled it illegal for the population to assemble and protest the governments heavy handed actions.
Am I talking about a 1960's eastern bloc country? No, this is happening today in 21st century Canada. I think the Liberal government is going to get used to this soviet style of doing things and like what they mistakenly think they have to power to do. It had better come to an end soon.

Up 56 Down 13

Yukon Cornelius on May 7, 2020 at 7:58 am

"Several businesses across the territory have begun reopening in the last week with safety precautions in place. Official guidelines for safe management of customer traffic are being developed and will be available soon", Silver said.

Translation: YG never had a re-opening plan in place and businesses did whatever they wanted in defiance of social distancing restrictions.

"One case of COVID-19 arriving in the Yukon in March could have resulted in 2,500 cases by May 1, while 10 cases arriving could have resulted in 7,000 cases and 1,000 hospitalizations. Our health system could easily be overwhelmed in the first scenario, not to mention the second,” Hanley said.

Translation: Despite the fact that YG knew that continuing to allow Americans from plague-ridden cities to drive through the Yukon on their way to Alaska - stopping to shop along side Yukoners in our grocery stores could result in the Yukon having 7,000 cases of COVID-19 and 1,000 hospitalizations, YG did it anyway.

Thanks for putting Yukoners' public health and safety first, Sandy!

Up 29 Down 16

Moose101 on May 7, 2020 at 6:50 am

No mention of the person who was charged for not self isolating on returning to Yukon . I for one would like to know who this selfish person is that puts his own interests above the law to endanger anyone he may have been in contact with.

Up 36 Down 40

BnR on May 7, 2020 at 6:13 am

It takes years to become a medical professional.
But apparently, just by reading on “the google”, anyone can become an expert and post their comments here.
Cool.
I’ll still to defer to Dr. Hanley’s recommendations over Dave, JC or Bud though.

Up 36 Down 20

Max Mack on May 7, 2020 at 12:36 am

Models showing scary outcomes and that "justify" the drastic measures taken.

See how awesome Silver and Hanley are!?

Up 47 Down 19

One One-Lesser-Voice on May 6, 2020 at 11:05 pm

We have no herd immunity if it exists for covid.
Sweden has some semblance of herd immunity and 271 deaths per million people with older vulnerable people dying from covid exposure. Their primary schools remained open.

We have fear upon fear and just 11 positive cases.
People deserve the right to return to work. Many people cannot work at home and be sheltered like government workers.

I want to sit down for a coffee and a burger and social distance while having a beer.
Let's go cautiously into the future now.

Up 32 Down 21

DS on May 6, 2020 at 6:18 pm

I'd be very surprised if Dr Hanley really thinks that 7000 cases could have occurred. By the time a couple of hundred people were at home with symptoms in this town, the moccasin telegraph and Facebook would be lit up and people would be scared and in voluntary lockdown.
I think those comments were quite unnecessary and may make people take what he says less seriously going forward.

Up 65 Down 20

Bud McGee on May 6, 2020 at 4:31 pm

So, this presentation came one day before the press conference Premier John Horgan gave in British Columbia. I am not an NDP supporter, but I think he did a good job and the news was encouraging and contained specifics, such as the fact the British Columbia's Provincial Parks will be opening before Victoria Day.

BC's presentation lies in contrast to the vague generalities and fatalistic presentation of the Government of Yukon. On the subject of opening parks and campgrounds, the Yukon's website says "opening of territorial parks and campgrounds delayed until June". How is it possible that a province of 5 million can open its parks two weeks before a territory of 36,000?

I also don't believe the Yukon has its own modelling or modelers. This requires university level mathematicians. I think what the Yukon does is take the model of others and scale them down, but that doesn't work, because variables like population density are different in the Yukon compared to the urban areas where the models are developed. Yukon’s "model" that generated the alarming number of 7,000 cases was just an assumption that 20% of the Yukon's 36,000 residents would get infected and of those that get infected 15% would need to get hospitalized. That alarming number doesn't say over what time scale the hospitalizations would occur. I think there’s a little bit of mission creep going on here. These measures were never about eliminating every possible case of COVID-19. It was about keeping the rate of hospitalization at a level where Yukon’s healthcare system can keep up.

Up 45 Down 38

JC on May 6, 2020 at 4:05 pm

Time to throw those stupid "models" away. They never work. It just confuses everybody and instills panic. Just like the current weather predictions. They are based on a climate change model - not human science anymore. Now weather predictions say, according to climate change, the weather should be bla bla bla for the next 7 days. Well, that turned out to be rubbish, as everyday, the 7 day predictions change. Let's get back to real science. Is the modeling system what they are teaching in the colleges these days?

Up 67 Down 45

Matthew on May 6, 2020 at 3:45 pm

One case of COVID-19 arriving in the Yukon in March could have resulted in 2,500 cases by May 1, while 10 cases arriving could have resulted in 7,000 cases and 1,000 hospitalizations.

Oh really... key words you all need to look for... this one being COULD.. like it or not this IS fear mongering

Up 74 Down 65

Dave on May 6, 2020 at 3:20 pm

Attention Brendan Hanley and Sandy Silver. Please stop letting your actions and thus the entire territory be ruled by fear. The consequences of your actions are now worse than the alternative. Keep some entry and screening controls in place at the borders and airport and let the rest of us get back to our work and lives.

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