Liberals pull ahead
As the territorial election campaign comes to a close, it appears the Yukon Liberals have taken the lead.
As the territorial election campaign comes to a close, it appears the Yukon Liberals have taken the lead.
In a poll conducted by the Marsh Lake-based DataPath Systems between Oct. 1 and Oct. 5, 37 per cent of decided voters in the Yukon stated they would vote for the Liberals, boosting party support seven points over the last poll in September, before the election was called.
Support for the Yukon Party is also up by one point to 34 per cent support, while the NDP has seen a drop of six points to 25 per cent in the territory.
Larsen surveyed 821 Yukoners, 374 from Whitehorse and 447 from the communities for the poll.
The decrease in NDP support could be due to a number of factors, Larsen said.
The absence of NDP Leader Todd Hardy for much of the campaign (he was in Vancouver being treated for leukemia) may have allowed the Liberals to gain a stronghold, she said. Liberal candidates also seem to have more name recognition among voters and there may also be voters casting their ballots based on which party they think is more likely to defeat the Yukon Party.
Among those who indicated they would vote Liberal, 23 per cent said they support the candidate because they don't like the current government.
'But don't give up on the Yukon Party or even the NDP,' Larsen said. 'There are ridings where any candidate can still win, and others where each party has a strong lead.'
While the economy topped the list of issues for voters, it was followed by the environment, child care and health care.
'The social issues really jumped,' said Larsen.
Of those decided in Whitehorse, the support for the Liberals is at 38 per cent, while the Yukon Party has 33 per cent support. The NDP sits at 25 per cent, while independent candidates (though there are none seeking office in Whitehorse) have four per cent of the vote.
In the communities, Liberals have 31 per cent, while the Yukon Party has 28 per cent. The NDP continue to have 25 per cent support, while independents have six per cent.
Gender did not seem to make a difference in how people will vote, though who they work for did.
Of those decided voters working in government, 47 per cent indicated they would vote Liberal, while 26 per cent would support the Yukon Party and 21 per cent would vote NDP.
Those working in the private sector, however, are more likely to support the Yukon Party, with 42 per cent of decided voters. Liberals have 27 per cent support in the private sector, while the NDP has 26 per cent.
In this poll, Larsen also looked at which party had the support of longtime Yukoners. Of those living in the Yukon for more than 25 years, 40 per cent indicated they would vote for the Yukon Party.
While part of it may be indicative of age as the older a person is the more likely they are to vote on the right of the political spectrum Larsen said it could also be due to past experience. A number of people noted there hasn't been a party given two consecutive terms in years.
As the 19 per cent of undecided voters choose a candidate, the make-up of the next territorial government will be decided, Larsen said.
Speaking on 'total speculation', Larsen said some undecided voters may be still waiting for candidates to show up at their door and others might be waiting to cast their vote strategically.
Based on the poll, Larsen suggested that the Liberals will be challenging the Yukon Party for a minority government, though winning a majority isn't beyond reach for the Yukon Party.
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