Whitehorse Daily Star

Liberals closing gap on NDP: poll

According to a newly released poll, if the territorial general election was called today, the results would likely be too close to predict.

By Whitehorse Star on May 12, 2006

According to a newly released poll, if the territorial general election was called today, the results would likely be too close to predict.

A survey conducted by DataPath Systems of Marsh Lake shows the NDP is continuing to lead with 33 per cent support of decided voters.

However, the gap between the party and the Liberals is now only a two per cent difference. The Liberals are currently standing at 31 per cent and the Yukon Party slightly trailing at 29 per cent.

The NDP has experienced a 10 per cent drop in voter support since the summer of 2005, when it was leading in the polls at 43 per cent.

By the fall, it had dipped to 35 per cent and then down three more percentage points when this poll was conducted between April 15 and May 2 .

Meanwhile, the Liberal party has been on the rise, moving up from 21 per cent last summer. But it now remains in the same spot as a poll conducted between Nov. 28 and Dec. 6, 2005 found.

The Yukon Party's support has remained fairly consistent in the last several polls conducted by DataPath, fluctuating between 25 and 30 per cent. Since the winter poll, the party has moved up from the 25 per cent mark to where it is today.

The party was showing 35 per cent support in a 2002 survey conducted when it won the last territorial election.

The party formed a majority government with 40 per cent of the vote, while the Liberal party won only one seat with 32 per cent of the popular vote.

Donna Larsen, a partner at DataPath, said there are still a lot of undecided voters and the numbers will continue to shift as Yukoners make up their minds on who will form the next government.

'As an election is called, and more names and policies are released, we'll start to see some separation between the parties,' she said.

Premier Dennis Fentie must call an election by November.

Approximately 30 per cent of the 150 Whitehorse and 150 non-Whitehorse respondents were undecided.

Whitehorse residents are more likely to wait and see who is running for the position of MLA in their riding before deciding how they will cast their ballot. Almost 55 per cent of the city-dwellers are waiting, compared to only 31 per cent in the rural communities.

Only 24 per cent of the voters polled reported they would definitely be supporting their current representative; 27 per cent said they definitely wouldn't be and 48 per cent aren't sure yet.

Beyond the personalities running in the territorial election, Larsen said, concerns about policy were prominent in the survey.

Approximately 44 per cent of those polled said social policy was their top priority.

Another 34 per cent highlighted policy on business and the economy as being a deciding factor in their decision, while 32 per cent said stances on the environment would be important in the pending election.

Twenty-seven per cent of those surveyed chose the option of 'other' when asked about policy concerns.

Nearly 46 per cent of those surveyed said they would be casting their ballot based on party policy.

The poll found those who have decided they will be voting for the Yukon Party are most interested in business, economy and the environment.

Liberal voters chose social policy and 'other' policy as their top priorities.

Those voting Liberal are least interested in policy, with only 50 per cent of its supporters casting their ballot because of issues on the platform.

Forty-four per cent of the Liberals' decided voters indicated they are voting for the party because they don't like the current government.

The NDP attracted more of a mix, said Larsen, but environment was a dominant policy choice. Approximately 70 per cent of the party's voters cast their ballot based on policy.

The Yukon Party has the strongest support for its policy, however, with 73 per cent of its supporters casting ballots on those terms.

'The individuals who have decided how to cast their ballots at this point are rather unique subgroups in the Yukon,' said Larsen.

Much of the Liberal party's vote is currently made up of government employees, who comprise a significant voting block in the Whitehorse-area ridings, she said.

'It's a strong and centralized support.'

In Whitehorse, the Liberals dominate the polls at 38 per cent of the decided vote. It is eight per cent above the NDP, which has 30 per cent of the city's vote. The Yukon Party holds 27 per cent.

In the territory's rural communities, however, the Liberals are at the back of the pack with only 15 per cent of the decided vote.

The Liberals have been criticized in the past for being a Whitehorse-based party.

Former NDP MLAs Eric Fairclough and Gary McRobb, however, have recently taken their rural representation to the Liberal caucus.

Liberal Leader Arthur Mitchell has stated he wants to ensure his party represents all the Yukon and values the rural perspective provided to his newly-expanded caucus by the two men.

The poll was conducted following McRobb joining the Liberal caucus and concluded just two days following Fairclough's announcement last week.

It is the NDP that holds a four per cent lead in the rural communities at 39 per cent support. The Yukon Party is at 35 per cent.

The NDP is currently receiving most of its support from women and households without children.

The Yukon Party instead is grabbing the votes of men and those working in the private sector. But women and individuals under the age of 36 are weak in supporting the party.

Despite the lowest standing in the poll, 20 per cent of those surveyed ranked the Yukon Party as near excellent on a scale of one to five when looking at its performance in the legislature during the past four years.

The NDP was leading, though, with 23 per cent giving it a rank of four or five on the scale.

The Liberals again took the rear with only a 19 per cent rating for the mark of excellence.

Current decided voters appear to have very strong reasons for supporting their chosen party, said Larsen. She added she expects the numbers to come down by the next poll, scheduled for July.

The data on the survey were weighed to accurately represent the Yukon based on community, age and gender. The results are accurate 19 out of 20 times to 95 per cent confidence.

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