Lengthy real estate boom has petered out: statistics
After five years of steady and often dramatic increases in real estate values, the territory's marketplace is showing signs of levelling off.
After five years of steady and often dramatic increases in real estate values, the territory's marketplace is showing signs of levelling off.
"We're certainly not expecting any price growth this year," Terry Bergen, president of the Yukon Real Estate Association, told the Star recently.
"At this point, we're feeling the economy is going to be the same as last year, with a shortage of housing for people that will keep prices up. But where 'up' is, is anybody's guess."
According to the Yukon Bureau of Statistics, the average single house price grew 10.9 per cent, or $32,400, comparing the third quarter of 2007 ($297,400) to the third quarter of 2008 ($329,800).
But by Bergen's estimate - derived on the real estate front lines for the untabulated fourth quarter of 2008 - both prices and sales are in decline.
"The average house was in the $300,000 range and last spring it crept up to $320,000. That same home now is probably $280,000," Bergen said.
"Our (sales) volume is down 30 per cent from last year (and) prices have certainly come off but seem to be stable at where they are now."
While the cost of owning a home in Whitehorse rose $166,400 (101.8 per cent), from September 2002 to September 2008, fewer sales in the fourth quarter of 2008 have translated into an inventory holding pattern.
"It's a lot slower than the year before. A lot of people are looking but they're more cautious," said Bergen.
"It isn't really (a buyer's market) yet because we don't have a big increase in inventory ... it's a stable market but not a great inventory."
In spite of a 4.9 per cent drop in sales for the third quarter of 2008 (July, August, September) compared to the same period the year previous, 2008's real estate purchases are poised to eclipse 2007's.
"Depending on what the fourth quarter does, we're doing at least as well as last year," said the statistics bureau's Gary Brown, who would not rule out another record year.
While Bergen described current market action as slower than the same time last year, it is important to remember that 2007's third quarter sales were a record $65.9 million.
"Overall, the total sales have dropped by 3.6 per cent, which isn't a drastic decrease given that the third quarter of 2007 was the highest ever," Brown said.
And keeping with the old real estate adage "location, location, location," where a home is situated factored hugely in how much its value rose.
Again, comparing the third quarters of 2007 and 2008, real estate speculators would have benefited big by buying in either Riverdale or Porter Creak. Home prices there climbed 19.9 per cent and 14.2 per cent respectively.
Copper Ridge home values enjoyed a markedly less 6.9 per cent increase while country residential homes prices went up in value just 0.4 per cent.
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