There are no guarantees the Yukon will recover all or even most of the $36.5 million it invested in asset backed commercial paper (ABCP), says an independent investment analyst.

Bill MacLachlan chairs Calgary's Mawer Investment Management Ltd.

In an interview this morning, he said the matter is entirely too complex and uncertain for any party to suggest what might happen, particularly if the restructuring plan is voted down at the end of the month.

But he also suspects that a deal will be reached between the large, multi-billion-dollar investors and the smaller Mom and Pop investors who make up the vast majority of the 1,800 voters - otherwise all parties stand to lose a great deal.

"I think the chances are pretty good because it's everybody's best interest," MacLachlan said from his Calgary office.

Mawer Investment Management is an independent firm which manages $5.3 billion in investments, and provides independent analyses.

MacLachlan suspects some of the larger players, like the Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec, which has some $12 billion tied up, will attempt to strike a deal with the smaller investors, simply because they have too much to lose.

Of the $33 billion tied up in Canada because of the crash of ABCP, something less than $400 million is owned by 1,400 or so of the 1,800 individual investors who have a vote.

A plan to convert the debt from the original short-term notes to long-term investments of five to eight years, in order to maximize returns on the original amount, has been put together by a national committee of financial experts.

The committee began touring Canada this week to explain the proposal.

The vote is set for April 25.

The committee has suggested those parties who can hang on for the eight years will receive most of their money back, or more.

Those who have to sell earlier will take a loss.

If the restructuring package is turned down, the committee has suggested, the value of the $33 billion could drop quickly, and significantly.

Officials with the territorial Department of Finance have indicated the government will get its money back with some interest, the first payments coming in year five, and on through to year eight.

It's becoming apparent, however, that the minor investors, the pensioners with $25,000, $100,000 or more tied up, aren't interested in waiting eight years for their money back.

MacLachlan pointed out under the court-protected process, each investor, whether they're out $10,000, or $5 billion, has one vote.

And it looks like the majority who are owed the $400 million are looking for a deal from the larger players who are owed billions, with a threat of sinking the package altogether, and seeing everybody lose, MacLachan agreed.

He doesn't believe the Yukon, with its $36.5 million at stake, will be involved in those negotiations, as they will likely occur between the group representing the small investors and the large investors with billions at stake.

MacLachlan pointed out with $12 billion on the line, the Caisse has a pretty significant interest in ensuring the smaller investors don't sink the restructuring deal.

"I really think if this does not happen, everybody will end up with much less," he said.

How much less, MacLachlan added, is difficult to determine.

Some companies, for instance, have already written off 10 to 15 cents on the dollar, while others have written off 30 to 40 cents on the dollar.

The auditor general of Canada found in February that the Yukon government was in contravention of its own Financial Administration Act when it made the investments into ABCP last summer, as the investments were not guaranteed.

In her report, Sheila Fraser points specifically to the section in the investment portfolio sold to the Yukon that states the investments were not guaranteed.

Premier Dennis Fentie has dismissed the auditor's finding as "her opinion," and has blamed the banks for not living up to the guarantees.

The auditor's staff simply counter with: if the investments was guaranteed, where's the money?

Opposition parties have been relentless in their attack of Fentie, as the Minister of Finance, since the spring sitting of the legislature began March 20.

Fentie insists the type of investment was commonplace by all governments as far back as 1990, resulting in $200 million in additional revenue, and only surfaced as an issue last summer because of the market crash.

MacLachlan said the bottom line is investors need to know where their money is being placed.

It can be a very complex and sophisticated matter, particularly for individuals, as evidence shows even the multibillion investments portfolios can get burnt.

Investors, he insisted, need to understand the risk involved.

The Yukon government implemented a new policy in January prohibiting similar investments in the future.