A dark, ominous cloud is looming over the Yukon’s economic future.

Indeed, the territory’s economy has the “bleakest near-term outlook” of all jurisdictions in Canada, according to a report from the Conference Board of Canada.

The self-described “objective and non-partisan” think tank released its summer 2016 Territorial Outlook this morning, and while it’s sunny days ahead for the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, the Yukon’s forecast is notably grim.

In 2017, the Northwest Territories’ economy is projected to grow 15.6 per cent and Nunavut’s is expected to see a modest expansion of 4.9 per cent.

By contrast, the Yukon’s economy is forecast to contract by 7.7 per cent in 2017.

This is due in large part to the winding down of open-pit mining at Capstone’s Minto copper mine, the last large-scale mine operating in the territory.

Minto initially planned to cease open-pit operations this summer, but last month, Minto’s general manager, Ron Light, told the Star the corporation may stretch out active mining until next spring at the latest.

The end-date depends on what cost-saving measures can be found, said Light, but ultimately, Capstone Mining’s senior management will make the call.

Once open-pit mining stops at the Minto North site, the corporation will process its ore stockpile until that runs out. It will also be forced to lay off “probably 50 per cent” of the Pelly Construction Ltd. crew employed at the mine, said Light.

The downturn in commodity prices has stalled the construction of new mines in the Yukon and resulted in the closures of existing ones.

The Territorial Outlook report cites the Alexco Bellekeno silver mine, which shut down in 2013, and Yukon Zinc’s Wolverine mine, which halted production in 2015.

“Bad news keeps piling up for the territory’s mining sector,” reads the board’s report.

Though Minto will curtail active mining in the coming months, mining output is expected to rise by 12.8 per cent in 2016.

That’s thanks to the quality of ore at the Minto North pit, “which is high-grade and has a lower oxide content,” according to the board’s assessment.

What’s more, the board projects the volume of copper processed at the Minto site to expand by about 60 per cent before the mine ceases operations in 2017.

All told, the Conference Board of Canada expects the Yukon’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to increase 3.6 per cent in 2016, before it drops by 7.7 per cent in 2017, and tumbles another 3.1 per cent in 2018.

(The financial education website Investopedia defines real GDP as a measure of the value of all the goods and services produced by a particular economy in a year, adjusted for inflation.)

In an attempt to kick-start the mining industry, Ottawa said it would continue offering the Mineral Exploration Tax Credit until the spring of 2017.

The credit allows people with shares in “junior exploration companies” deductions for expenses related to exploration, such as costs incurred through prospecting or geological surveying.

For its part, the Yukon government offered reimbursements of $15,000 to $40,000 in 2016 for small-scale exploration projects in the territory through its Yukon Mineral Exploration program.

Certainly it’s not all doom and gloom for the Yukon.

The Territorial Outlook points to a recent leap in gold prices – 30 per cent since the start of 2016 – as boding well for the Yukon, especially considering the gold mining projects anticipated to come online in the next decade.

In the long term, projects like the Eagle Gold and Coffee gold mines, and the Casino mine, are expected to reinvigorate the mining sector and the territorial economy overall.

“The most promising news to emerge in Yukon’s mining industry is the purchase of Kaminak Gold Corporation by Goldcorp, the Vancouver-based mining titan,” says the Conference Board’s report.

It goes on to say that the agreement “comes as a boon to Yukon’s mining industry since the large acquisition signals that Goldcorp likely plans to develop the property (the Coffee gold project about 130 km south of Dawson City) in the near future, rather than sit on the land for years.”

If all goes according to plan, the think tank estimates that the Yukon’s economy could grow by a welcome 10 per cent per year (on average) between 2024 and 2028.

In the meantime, said the board, the Yukon government is helping to mitigate the effects of a mining slump by spending on big capital projects, and the feds are stepping in with investments in water infrastructure.

Most recently, the Yukon and federal governments announced they were teaming up to fund 17 infrastructure projects in the territory, ranging from bridge and road improvements, to drinking water and sewage system upgrades, to the tune of $78 million.

Some of those projects, which were announced in July, broke ground this summer.

To be sure, many Yukoners lament the local economy’s reliance on mining.

“We need to build a more diverse and flexible economy; mining will always play a role in Yukon’s economy, but we have to acknowledge the ups and downs of commodity prices by supporting other industries,” NDP Leader Liz Hanson said this morning in a statement on the Conference Board’s report.

She sees promise in the renewable energy, specifically solar and geothermal, and information technology sectors.

During his visit to Whitehorse back in June, Stephen Poloz, the governor of the Bank of Canada, said the value of tourism to the territory, and the service industries related to it, is worth acknowledgement.

“(Tourism) by the way, is the second most important sector here, and seems to be providing very well, and no wonder because ... the U.S. economy is strong, which is a big source of visitors,” Poloz said at the time.