DataPath Systems of Marsh Lake is prophesying a close federal electoral race for the Yukon, with fewer than five percentage points separating the top three candidates.
DataPath surveyed 425 Yukoners. The polling firm estimates its margin of error will sit within five percentage points of the results on Monday.
Incumbent Liberal Larry Bagnell is reported as the tight forerunner, with 34 per cent of the votes of those surveyed.
New Democratic Party candidate Justin Lemphers and Conservative hopeful Jonas Smith are jockeying for second position at 29 per cent and 28 per cent respectively.
Green Party candidate Lenore Morris holds seven per cent of the vote, the data say.
Joseph Zelezny, the candidate for the People’s Party of Canada, sits at one per cent support among those who DataPath surveyed.
Nine per cent of the surveyed Yukoners reported they were undecided on who to vote for.
Female respondents were three times more likely to be undecided than male respondents.
Bagnell showed equally well in both Whitehorse and the communities.
Smith pulled stronger numbers in communities than in Whitehorse.
Forty-four per cent of community respondents reported they plan to vote Conservative, while 25 per cent of Whitehorse respondents planned to support the Conservatives.
Lemphers showed the opposite. Thirty-four per cent of respondents from Whitehorse plan to vote NDP, while 11 per cent of respondents in communities plan to endorse that party.
DataPath found 40 per cent of women polled plan to support Bagnell, while 34 per cent of men planned to vote for Smith.
Voters under the age of 35 were the highest demographic planning to vote NDP. Those between 35 and 50 were most likely to vote Liberal, and voters over the age of 50 were most likely to cast their ballots for the Conservatives.
Three out of four voters reported they were voting based on what the candidate can do for Canada, as opposed to what he or she can do for the Yukon.
On the national scale, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh came out on top. Twenty-nine per cent of respondents expressed confidence in Singh as a federal leader.
Only 24 per cent of voters expressed confidence in Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.
“Likely, this is due to some level of dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Trudeau personally, and not the Liberal Party in general,” DataPath partner Donna Larsen told the Star Thursday.
Bagnell is receiving a boost based on reputation, with 30 per cent of his supporters basing their vote on his experience level. (He was first elected in 2000.) The secondary reason for supporting Bagnell was “northern issues.”
Fifty per cent of voters planning to support Smith said the primary reason was “his party,” while 41 per cent of Lemphers’ supporters and 21 per cent of Bagnell’s loyalists listed the party as a reason.
Secondary reasons for supporting Smith were “trust/honesty” and “the economy.”
Voters said they supported Lemphers because of “climate change/environment.”
DataPath, an independent polling service, surveyed a list of randomly recruited Yukoners.
Data were weighted to ensure representativeness on gender, age, employment, community, First Nation, education and past election behaviour.
The poll opened last Saturday and closed Wednesday evening.
“That undecided vote is really critical,” Larsen told the Star.
“So, everyone needs to go out and vote, because every vote is going to count.”