Whitehorse Daily Star

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A PATRIOTIC MOMENT – Conservative candidate Jonas Smith (far left) had those attending Wednesday evening’s CBC all-candidates forum in Whitehorse sing ‘O Canada’ for his opening statement. DataPath Systems says the electoral race in the Yukon is a close one.

Frontrunners are in a tight race, data suggest

DataPath Systems of Marsh Lake is prophesying a close federal electoral race for the Yukon,

By Gabrielle Plonka on October 17, 2019

DataPath Systems of Marsh Lake is prophesying a close federal electoral race for the Yukon, with fewer than five percentage points separating the top three candidates.

DataPath surveyed 425 Yukoners. The polling firm estimates its margin of error will sit within five percentage points of the results on Monday.

Incumbent Liberal Larry Bagnell is reported as the tight forerunner, with 34 per cent of the votes of those surveyed.

New Democratic Party candidate Justin Lemphers and Conservative hopeful Jonas Smith are jockeying for second position at 29 per cent and 28 per cent respectively.

Green Party candidate Lenore Morris holds seven per cent of the vote, the data say.

Joseph Zelezny, the candidate for the People’s Party of Canada, sits at one per cent support among those who DataPath surveyed.

Nine per cent of the surveyed Yukoners reported they were undecided on who to vote for.

Female respondents were three times more likely to be undecided than male respondents.

Bagnell showed equally well in both Whitehorse and the communities.

Smith pulled stronger numbers in communities than in Whitehorse.

Forty-four per cent of community respondents reported they plan to vote Conservative, while 25 per cent of Whitehorse respondents planned to support the Conservatives.

Lemphers showed the opposite. Thirty-four per cent of respondents from Whitehorse plan to vote NDP, while 11 per cent of respondents in communities plan to endorse that party.

DataPath found 40 per cent of women polled plan to support Bagnell, while 34 per cent of men planned to vote for Smith.

Voters under the age of 35 were the highest demographic planning to vote NDP. Those between 35 and 50 were most likely to vote Liberal, and voters over the age of 50 were most likely to cast their ballots for the Conservatives.

Three out of four voters reported they were voting based on what the candidate can do for Canada, as opposed to what he or she can do for the Yukon.

On the national scale, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh came out on top. Twenty-nine per cent of respondents expressed confidence in Singh as a federal leader.

Only 24 per cent of voters expressed confidence in Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.

“Likely, this is due to some level of dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Trudeau personally, and not the Liberal Party in general,” DataPath partner Donna Larsen told the Star Thursday.

Bagnell is receiving a boost based on reputation, with 30 per cent of his supporters basing their vote on his experience level. (He was first elected in 2000.) The secondary reason for supporting Bagnell was “northern issues.”

Fifty per cent of voters planning to support Smith said the primary reason was “his party,” while 41 per cent of Lemphers’ supporters and 21 per cent of Bagnell’s loyalists listed the party as a reason.

Secondary reasons for supporting Smith were “trust/honesty” and “the economy.”

Voters said they supported Lemphers because of “climate change/environment.”

DataPath, an independent polling service, surveyed a list of randomly recruited Yukoners.

Data were weighted to ensure representativeness on gender, age, employment, community, First Nation, education and past election behaviour.

The poll opened last Saturday and closed Wednesday evening.

“That undecided vote is really critical,” Larsen told the Star.

“So, everyone needs to go out and vote, because every vote is going to count.”

Comments (22)

Up 12 Down 5

BnR on Oct 20, 2019 at 4:08 pm

My $.02; if the Bloc sweeps Quebec, the new French only school in Riverdale gets turned into an annex for FH Collins.
Can't have it all mon amis....

Up 7 Down 13

Joe on Oct 20, 2019 at 11:52 am

@snowman, my real name is joe, I don’t use pseudonyms. You’re giving way too much credit to the blues and reds and those goofy polls. Have you ever been called? Wanna check real polls, walk down the street and ask people who they’re voting for and 2 out of 3 say Lenore or they are thinking about voting for Lenore because they’re tired of the same back and forth lies and lines by the old club blues and reds. Reality check.

Up 14 Down 11

Yukoner53 on Oct 18, 2019 at 8:19 pm

@charlie's aunt - Well which is it? is he a 3rd generation Yukoner meaning he, a parent and grandparent were born here or did he just move here like 15-20 years ago from Calgary? Also, has anyone looked into his background at the Capital Hotel when he was working there? I recall a crowd of locals marching on that place to shut it down due to all the sketchy things happening there. Won't get into details, but someone should do some digging.

Up 7 Down 20

Snowman on Oct 18, 2019 at 8:15 pm

Hahah ok then "joe" or should I say Lenore. The only thing you will end up doing is ensuring a conservative win. At least this time. In future elections when the polls change, who knows? But this time, no chance in heck. The only way to stop Pasloski's backroom boy from Calgary is to vote for Larry.

Up 11 Down 23

joe on Oct 18, 2019 at 5:06 pm

Funny thing is everyone I talk to is voting Lenore No polls ever come my way, no one asks but I can tell you word on the street is pretty obvious this time.

Up 11 Down 13

Charlie's Aunt on Oct 18, 2019 at 4:19 pm

@Yukoner53; Don't know who, but either Star or yourself has their facts wrong. In Jonas' profile Star states that Jonas is 3rd generation Yukoner. Also says he has lived here for 20, years. That residency may make him more of a local than many of the electorate. Biggest benefit of all these polls, whether they are accurate or not, is that they may encourage people to wake up and vote.

Up 24 Down 8

Obi on Oct 18, 2019 at 1:55 pm

Vote with all your senses!
Politicians, and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.....

Up 12 Down 24

Duane Gastant' Aucoin on Oct 18, 2019 at 1:44 pm

@ Moose on- Even if Jonas wins the Conservatives have no chance on forming government. Both they & the Liberals are hovering around 31% support but the other parties, other than the PPC, will not support a right wing Conservative government & policies. It'll be a Liberal minority with the Greens & NDP holding them up. Whether that's by a formal coalition or a Confidence-and-supply agreement or by a case by case situation.
So we might lose the Yukon but Canada & our environment will be better off with a Liberal minority. As Elizabeth May said during the English debate to Trudeau..."Please God you don't get a majority this time around because you won't keep your promises!"

Up 30 Down 21

Yukoner53 on Oct 18, 2019 at 12:53 pm

Wilf: Jonas was not born and raised here. He is from down south and just pretends to be from here which is why talks about his family's brief stint up here a long time ago. He tries to be folksy with his plaid and guitar but he is really a hipster from downtown Calgary. He must be doing a good job though since you obviously fell for the ruse.

Up 13 Down 35

Moose on Oct 18, 2019 at 12:49 pm

Go ahead and throw your vote away then Duane. Vote NDP and get a Conservative MP. Vote Liberal to keep Larry. You can be as outraged as you want but this is the simple reality. Just don't pretend to care for the environment or climate change when you would rather have a conservative who will roll back all of our progress just to punish the Liberals.

Up 20 Down 8

EJ on Oct 18, 2019 at 12:43 pm

I call BS on this datapath poll. "338Canada.com" shows the Liberals at 29%, Conservatives at 27% the NDP at 21% and the Greens at 19%. "Votewell.ca" shows the Conservatives at 36%, Liberals at 34% , NDP at 17% and the Greens at 10%.

Up 36 Down 14

Jolson trudeau on Oct 18, 2019 at 11:06 am

It's time for Larry the liberal (Trudeau) apologist to find a new free meal ticket.

Up 25 Down 3

Obi on Oct 18, 2019 at 10:58 am

"Nothing is more unpredictable than a mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.".....Marcus Tullius Cicero, 40BC.

Up 14 Down 3

KC on Oct 18, 2019 at 9:59 am

Rule #1 of reporting on polls should ALWAYS be to publish the margin of error.

Up 14 Down 28

Wilf Carter on Oct 17, 2019 at 11:57 pm

I find it interesting that the NDP are so high in the polls. So it is any ones election to win. Singh has made some major mistakes by supporting liberal NDP combined government. It will hurt NDP in the end.
Larry is trying to buy the election with your money without asking all Yukoners where they wanted the money spent. Yukoner public money is about smart investing it for benefit of all Yukoners not individuals or groups.
All this does is divide Yukoners and creates anger which is right across this country at the present time.
Jonas is one those very bright Yukoners born and raised here who understands the Yukon and how people function.

Up 28 Down 10

Obi on Oct 17, 2019 at 6:28 pm

Larry Bagnell and Our Prime Minstrel, are both long, long past there best before due date!
I do like their last campaign speech tho, when they said,”We’ll show the world we are a prosperous country, even if we have to go broke to prove it”.......

Up 21 Down 8

JC on Oct 17, 2019 at 6:09 pm

How many of these respondents that were polled even are eligible to vote?

Up 23 Down 13

Lie detector on Oct 17, 2019 at 5:16 pm

Wow seems like someone is terrified of reality and is trying to fearmonger people. Interesting timing of this poll. What a bunch of rubbish. Kick the globalist puppets out for good. Nobody I've spoken to can afford a carbon tax or price on carbon. Mad max all the way.

Up 16 Down 37

Melford on Oct 17, 2019 at 5:09 pm

I'd like to thank the 'Yukon Party' for fielding a candidate and giving it they're all even though most realized that they stood little chance of forming a shape of any sort.

Up 41 Down 5

Molly Shore on Oct 17, 2019 at 5:04 pm

What are Datapath's polling methods? Landlines, cell phones, other methods? It's hard to trust a poll without understanding its methodology.

Up 42 Down 11

Groucho d'North on Oct 17, 2019 at 3:46 pm

Polls are for strippers. Remember all the polls that said Trump had zero chance of winning? Statistical predicting is not a perfect science.

Up 47 Down 36

Duane Gastant' Aucoin on Oct 17, 2019 at 3:21 pm

After much soul searching I found my only choice was to vote NDP, Justin Lemphers
I voted Liberal last time & they have done better than Harper's Conservatives...which wasn't too hard to do. But they've also broken alot of big promises, the first was electoral reform, then buying the pipeline but the final nail in the coffin was the disgusting way Trudeau & his Liberal goons treated Jody Wilson-Raybould!
She acted with integrity & stood up to pressure from Trudeau & the PMO to be unethical! And because of this Trudeau kicked her & Jane Philpott out of the Liberal Party & there was our Yukon MP Larry Bagnell giving him a standing ovation! Trudeau was applauded by Larry & the rest of the Liberals for being unethical while they condemned Jody for not playing the Ottawa game of favouring big corporations over the rule of law!
So Larry deserves to lose the riding & Trudeau deserves to lose his majority! That's how they're held accountable for their actions!
So that's my strategic vote for 2019!
However you decide to vote is up to you...just get out & do it!

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