Whitehorse Daily Star

Economic outlook bright despite '09 sales drop

Cheaper gas prices are blamed for a $17-million drop in retail sales from January 2009 to October 2009.

By Jason Unrau on January 28, 2010

Cheaper gas prices are blamed for a $17-million drop in retail sales from January 2009 to October 2009.

During that period, Yukon retailers grossed $429 million.

However, between January and October of 2008, shoppers in the territory spent $446.5 million.

"How much of that decline can we attribute to gas prices? That we don't know, but we know it definitely contributes to it,” Gary Brown, of the Yukon Bureau of Statistics, told the Star this week.

"Gas is playing a significant factor.”

Brown points to fuel prices in 2008 that went as high as $1.46 per litre in Whitehorse in the summer and averaged $1.24 for the year, compared to relatively cheaper gasoline available last year.

In 2009, prices at pumps in the capital fluctuated between a low of 85.4 cents in December, and a high of $1.09 in July, averaging out at 99 cents for the year.

"That's a 25-per-cent drop (in revenues) assuming the same volume was purchased,” Brown added.

A steady decline in labour force and employment in the territory also contributed to the dip in retail sales.

From January 2009 to December 2009, the number of people working in the Yukon dropped from 16,900 to 16,100.

The territory's labour force also fell from 18,000 at the beginning of last year to 17,300 last December.

The Yukon's unemployment rate improved to 6.9 per cent last month over 7.4 per cent in November 2009, however, as 300 people left the Yukon's labour force, which reported 100 fewer available jobs.

Back at the pumps, motorists filling up this week are paying in the neighbourhood of $1.09 to $1.12 for a litre, but it will be more than rising fuel prices that boost retail sales and the Yukon economy as a whole, according to a Conference Board of Canada report released this week.

More mining and construction work will bode well for the territory's fiscal outlook this year, the report states.

With two mines expected to commence production in 2010 – Yukon Zinc's Wolverine mine and Alexco's Bellekeno project – the territory's metal mining output is expected to grow 34.3 per cent.

In spite of a flagging economy nationwide, lower fuel prices and steady labour decline in the territory, the Yukon's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2009 grew by 1.5 per cent last year.

And for this year, the conference board predicts the territory's GDP will expand more than four per cent.

Marie-Christine Bernard, the associate director of forecasting for the board, credits government spending.

"There's a lot of public money for infrastructure, and these projects will lift investment figures,” Bernard told the Star this week.

"This still generates economic activity, people have jobs, earn wages and spend those wages.”

Several large-scale projects continue in the territory, including ongoing construction at the new $70-million Whitehorse Correctional Centre and the $17 million nurses' residence off Hospital Road.

As well, work is anticipated to start this fall on the massive $140-million Mayo B hydro expansion and grid connection between Pelly Crossing and Stewart Crossing.

In addition to added infrastructure and mine production, the Yukon Chamber of Mines is predicting another $100 million-plus exploration season to top the 2009 lull in which investment dropped to $95 million.

With a pair of new mines set to open and another big year in exploration anticipated, Terry Bergen, president of the Yukon Real Estate Association, hopes for more development in a housing market starved for options.

"The day of reckoning has come. We have these mines coming, there's upwards of a thousand people going to be working there and we're not going to have any place for them to live,” Bergen said in an interview.

"So the Yukon will get little benefit from having these mines here.”

Bergen said the number of home sellers entering the market is marginal. This, combined with steady demand, is going to push home values upwards, he predicts.

"Inventory is slightly below normal for this time of year and demand is good. It's not excessive but it's good,” Bergen said. "If this trend continues, there will be pressure on pricing.”

Residential real estate in Whitehorse has increased more than 99 per cent since 2003, when the average home sold for $165,500. Today that same home is worth $330,300.

From 2008 to 2009, real estate values in the Yukon's capital were dependent on location.

The average country residential home sold for $360,200 last year, marking an increase of 2.4 per cent from 2008.

However, homeowners in Porter Creek and Copper Ridge saw the average sale price in their neighbourhoods drop 1.8 and 1.0 per cent respectively from 2008 to 2009.

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