As the Yukon looks to leap forward into the spring season, flooding from Tuesday’s breakage of the territory’s longest river is not likely.

That’s according to a morning briefing to reporters held by the government’s Emergency Measures Organization Tuesday.

A hydrology scientist added that with few curveballs and normal conditions expected throughout the coming months, there will be no need to panic.

“Given normal meteorological conditions – by that I mean temperatures being on average – then flood risk is low in all the snowmelt prone areas,” said Ric Janowicz.

He did admit, though, that now is a vulnerable time for the territory to begin experiencing flood-like symptoms, particularly as it recovers from the winter weather.

“The first of the season are potentially upon us now – those are the spring ice jams,” he told reporters.

Ice jams occur when large chunks of ice begin floating along a stream’s current and block or hit narrow pathways. They develop near sloping streams, river bends and upstream of bridges or other structures.

Jams can be followed by snowmelt floods and eventually summer rainfalls.

As of April 1, the areas in the territory expected to have higher than normal runoff from melting snow were Dawson City and Old Crow.

Janowicz confirmed that May’s snow bulletin and water supply forecast has yet to be posted.

But he did say that once the breakage of the river at Dawson City eventually happens – as it did Tuesday (see coverage, p. 4) – the department will turn its attention to the other vulnerable body of water.

“Old Crow is also highly susceptible to ice jam flooding,” Janowicz said.

After temperatures of the first couple of days in April slightly above normal, and a similar pattern expected for early to mid May, Janowicz added he was not surprised to be keeping an eye on Old Crow.

“We are projecting fairly significant temperatures in the next few days, so this will really get things moving,” he added.

Plus, in his experience, the ice on top of Old Crow usually breaks a couple weeks after Dawson anyway – so things seem to be on track for now.

A senior scientist with Environment Yukon, Janowicz has more than 30 years’ experience as a cold regions hydrologist.

It’s something that helped him correctly predict when the Yukon River would break.

“Things are starting to take off there,” he told reporters early Tuesday at the emergency mock activation drill. The event also saw participation from the Wildland Fire Management and Emergency Medical Services branches.

“I think breakup will likely occur today (Tuesday), later in the evening,” he said, adding that the variable temperatures tend to weaken the ice.

“The water level has come up about a metre since the end of winter, which was mid-April,” said Janowicz. He continued that the levels were rising up to 25 cm a day.

Fewer than four hours later, the ice on top of the Yukon River – which intersects with the Klondike River at the edge of Dawson City – cracked.

A webpage dedicated to documenting the Yukon River’s breakup lists the earliest split as just a couple years ago in 2016, in late April. The latest was May 28, more than 50 years ago.

Janowicz is not surprised. “More recently now, as a result of climate change, we’re observing some midwinter breakup events which we’re not used to experiencing in the past,” he added.

The combination of these warmer-than-normal temperatures, increased rainfall and melting snowcaps can be to blame for flooding in the territory – especially wreaking havoc on communities along the water.

The territory last saw a major natural event in 2007, when higher-than-normal rainfall forced the upper Yukon River area into a flood.

The Marsh Lake summer flood, contained in and around the Southern Lakes area, led to evacuations. Residents living along the border of Watson Lake were also hit especially hard, their homes destroyed, causing substantial damage.

The territorial and federal governments teamed up at the end of that summer to offer loans of up to $35,000 to affected residents.

Ottawa chipped in through the federal disasters assistance program, while the Yukon government committed to paying for repairs.

Diarmuid O’Donovan, the director of EMO, said the territory has been developing response plans for years now, but there is still a gap in resources.

“Here in the Yukon, we’re kind of strapped for people and resources,” he told reporters, adding “we’ve got a big space to cover.”

Communities that are especially susceptible to natural events – like Dawson and Old Crow – are spread out across the territory. O’Donovan added that’s what makes areas like the Emergency Coordination Centre so crucial to responding to emergencies.

“What we’ll do here is co-ordinate multi-agency response to the particular event,” he added.

O’Donovan continued that ensuring the territory’s and city’s response teams are on the same page is vital to safe and effective action, much like the communication sent out to the public.

Still, Janowicz assures that there is low risk of seeing another dramatic flood like the one from more than a decade ago.

“Southern Lakes projection this year show that the snowpack is 84 per cent normal, which is half the amount that we received in 2007,” he said.

“We had the perfect storm: a heavy snowpack, warm temperatures and wetter than normal summer, so everything came together” during the last flood, he added.

The forecast this year for rainfall around Marsh Lake is projected to be 90 per cent of normal – meaning below normal – so Janowicz said there doesn’t seem to be any immediate concern.

He suspects that if Old Crow were to overflow, it would likely be from runoff from the Bluefish River.

“We’ve had variable spring temperatures that weaken the ice,” he said, adding “we’re keeping an eye on it because of the size of the Bluefish icing.”

Janowicz projected that Old Crow’s flood risk remains low to moderate.

He does add a caveat, though, one that is normal for all predictions.

“Timing is critical, that could all change,” he said. “If it warms up into the 30s, floods are still possible.”