DAWSON CITY – The ice pool tripod is on the Yukon River, installed by members of the Yukon Order of Pioneers, and is anchored by a cable to the boxed clock on the Dänojà Zho Cultural Centre.

It’s ready for when the ice moves during breakup, and the cable stops the clock, some time in late April or early May.

A statistical prediction created by local engineer Stephen Johnson offers a prediction that the ice will head downriver on May 4 “at precisely 3:55 a.m.”

However Johnson goes on to advise the readers of the April 3 edition of the Klondike Sun that statistics are not to be trusted, and says the odds of him being correct are one in 38,880.

Last year, the river broke up on at 1:25:48 p.m. May 8, but it has been as early as April 23 (2016) and as late as May 28 (1964).

You can check all the available dates and times on a searchable spreadsheet on the yukonriverbreakup.com website.

One thing that is certain is that some factor (climate change?) is causing the date to tend to be earlier over the 124 years that the event has been recorded.

While the contest has been running in some form since 1896, it has been in the hands of the IODE since the 1940s, and is their major annual fundraising event. The money is used for a variety of charitable causes.

The funds raised from the 4,999 tickets sold in this contest goes back into the community as Christmas presents for seniors, assistance for the women’s shelter, the humane society, Food for Learning, Girls’ Rock Camp and families in need.

They also give a $500 scholarship for a worthy Robert Service School grad, and buy books for newborn Dawsonites.

Tickets for the ice pool contest will be on sale in Dawson and at some locations in other towns until April 15.

The deadline used to be later in the month, but the changing climate and potentially earlier breakups caused the IODE to change it three years ago.

Between now and the actual event, an increasing number of residents will be seen walking the dike trail daily, looking for signs of deteriorating ice cover.

Someone will be watching when the tripod moves. That person will notify the local fire department to sound the siren.

Minutes later, regardless of the time of day or night, the river bank will be crowded with people wanting to see the movement. There will be a crowd on the west bank, and possibly some cheering, as well.

The unofficial ice road is no longer safe to use.

People in West Dawson and Sunnyvale are looking forward to the launching of the George Black ferry, which should be in the water before the Victoria Day weekend.