Initial optimism about the strength of this year's chinook salmon run up the Yukon River was reduced somewhat Tuesday, says a local salmon biologist.

Pat Milligan, with the federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans, said today the initial estimate was predicting a total run right around the average 150,000 or better.

With an average run, the required number of fish can escape to the spawning beds while allowing an average year for the aboriginal, commercial, domestic and sport fisheries on both sides of the Yukon-Alaska border, he said.

Milligan said the early prediction was for 47,000 chinook to cross the border, more than the 42,000 necessary to allow for a minimum 33,000 spawners, 8,000 for the aboriginal fishery and 1,000 for a test fishery. A total of 47,000 would have provided 5,000 to be shared among the commercial, sport and domestic fishery.

As a result of Tuesday's conference call with U.S. officials in Alaska, however, the estimate has been downgraded to a total run falling below average at 120,000 chinook, Milligan pointed out.

But he noted the run is late, and there is still time to see an increase in the overall strength.

'So if the fish are late, we can catch up and make up some of this fish but as of yesterday, there was not the same optimism there was before in terms of the projection.'

The total run of chinook entering the Yukon River last year was estimated at 169,000.

In the Yukon, results of the tagging program showed a spawning escapement of 28,000 fish, though subsequent aerial surveys of the spawning beds indicate a higher level of escapement, Milligan explained.

Records show the Yukon's aboriginal fishery harvested 5,557 chinook last year; the commercial fishery took 2,332; the sport fishery landed 606 and the domestic fishery harvested 63.

The bulk of the Yukon River commercial boats are situated in the Dawson City area.

Milligan explained that when officials met with the industry a week ago, representatives indicated the early prediction for an average or better run might be optimistic.