This year’s run of Yukon River chinook salmon is continuing to show more promise than originally expected, though still below average.

Salmon scientist Stephanie Schmidt of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game said Thursday sonar counts from near the mouth of the river suggest the numbers will be large enough to meet spawning targets on both sides of the Yukon-Alaska border.

The continued demise of the Yukon River chinook salmon prompted a full closure of all fishing in Alaska and Yukon for the first time ever.

While there has been no commericial or sport fishery on either side of the border for a number of years no, the subsistence food fishery in Alaska and the aboriginal food fishery has been allowed to continue up until this year.

“We feel it is certainly stronger than we expected it to be coming into the season,” said Schmidt. “We feel the numbers we are seeing have the potential to meet the escapement objectives at the border and to meet the escapement goals in Alaska.”

Counts at the Pilot Station sonar near the mouth of the river show a count of 129,128 as of Thursday morning.

The pre-season forecast put this summer’s total run at between 64,000 and 121,000, with somewhere between 30,000 and 64,000 making it into the Yukon.

The minimum spawning goal in the Yukon is 42,500 fish.

The Department of Fisheries and Oceans has ordered a complete ban on the territory’s aboriginal food fishery at least until there’s enough chinook to meet the spawning goals in the Yukon.

The Yukon’s Salmon Subcommittee, with the support of Yukon First Nations, asked the department to implement the full closure.

Schmidt said the rule of thumb used by salmon managers shows splits the annual migration 50-50 between the Yukon and Alaska.

Genetics taken so far this season indicate approximately 42 per cent of this year’s run is of Yukon origin, she said.

Schmidt said the most recent estimate with the return so far coupled with the genetic sampling puts the total number of chinook passing into the Yukon at approximately 53,000 fish.

The sonar at Eagle, Alaska near the border below Dawson City picked up its first chinook last Saturday. As of Thursday morning, the count was up to 2,507.

Schmidt said they’ll be in a much better position to forecast the anticipated total return to the Yukon by July 16 when the mid-point of the run is expected to be passing by the Eagle sonar.

The objective of having at least 42,500 chinook reach the spawning beds in the Yukon has not been met in five of the last seven years.

Last summer, for instance, just a hair over 30,000 crossed into the border into the territory.

The Tr’ondek Hwech’in of Dawson City announced Wednesday that it has implemented measures to for a full closure of its aboriginal fishery, at least until the spawning target is met.

“The run has been on a downward decline, and TH hopes our efforts to protect this valuable staple-food source will on day bring back healthy returns,” says the First Nation’s press release.

The release points out that in 2003, the number of Yukon-origin chinook that year was estimated at 150,000 salmon.

Not only are the runs significantly diminished, but the bigger chinook have disappeared, sayd the release.

Salmon managers on both sides of the border agree the annual migration has been shrinking for many years, but they don’t why exactly.

Less than 20 years ago, it wasn’t uncommon for Dawson’s commercial fishery to harvest over 10,000 chinook annually, in addition to the 8,000-plus taken by the Yukon’s aboriginal food fishery.

Back in the day, it was commonplace for Alaska’s commercial boats to take in excess of 100,000 chinook or more in a season, in addition to nearly 50,000 harvested every year by the state’s subsistence fishery.