The territorial government’s mid-year economic report reveals a major gap between last fall’s forecasts of strident growth and the present economic climate, particularly for mining.

Detection of “headwinds” facing that sector has perked up noticeably, leaving a rift between figures from September 2013 and those released Tuesday by the Department of Economic Development.

Spending on mineral production will likely fall from nearly half a billion dollars last year to less than $400 million in 2014. Last year’s report, however, trumpeted production levels that would rise to roughly $550 million.

“For 2014, the current forecast is calling for production increases in all metals that are currently produced in the territory,” the September report said.

This year’s publication states: “Mineral production (is) expected to be down in 2014, with the ongoing shutdown of the Bellekeno mine a primary contributing factor to lower production.”

The disparity is even greater proportionally in mineral development, where spending fell from $80 million to $60 million, the lowest level since 2008. Economic Development predicted it would reach $100 million.

“Mining-related spending was impacted by a general slowdown in the global mining industry and weaker mineral prices,” the current report states.

Expectations for 2015 remain “mixed,” though the government is predicting modest growth in production and exploration.

A chillier commercial climate has followed successive seasons of “record-high exploration expenditures and the development of three new mines,” Economic Development stated.

Since those prosperous times, however, Alexco Resources has suspended operations at its Bellekino silver mine and mill in Keno City.

The indefinite shut-down occurred last fall, fewer than three years after it opened.

Meanwhile, Yukon Zinc laid off workers and cut back production at its Wolverine Mine by 30 per cent due to falling zinc and silver prices, but has since ramped activity back up.

The sunny predictions in the fall of 2013 came despite full government awareness of layoffs at the Bellekeno and Wolverine mines and continued “weakness in metal prices,” particularly in silver and gold.

“All their eggs are in the one basket of mining,” said Jan Stick, the NDP’s critic for Economic Development. “It’s the one area that’s seen in these projections as really not doing well.

“Last September it was 8.8 (per cent predicted growth for 2014), and then in February it was 3.3, and now we’re down to 1.7,” she said.

“That’s a pretty big gap.”

The report states that near-term expectations remain “mixed,” as metal prices “are generally expected to remain weak in 2014 before picking up steam in 2015.”

Stick was skeptical. “They’re depending on world mineral prices and they’re already anticipating that it will be better next year. And I’m not sure if it’s anticipation or hope.”

The newly released summary also predicts modest growth in the gross domestic product for 2014, making it the 11th straight year of growth and coinciding with more than a decade of Yukon Party rule.

That expected bump, however, falls about $150 million short of the government’s predictions from September 2013.

The earlier paper prophesied a nine per cent increase in real GDP this year from last year’s nearly $2.3 billion, a far cry from the less than two per cent uptick now expected.

The government also dropped the expected value of Yukon building permits for this year by $35 million, revising it to a predicted $95 million from $125 million.

“Such a large discrepancy in the economic forecasting for 2014 ... does not reflect well on the government,” Hanson said earlier this year.

“It indicates that they are either off on their math or misleading the public on the economy.”

Whitehorse housing starts in 2013 dropped to about 160, one-third lower than estimated in last fall’s report and the fewest starts in five years. A modest bump is expected this year, though that remains below the historical average.

“Capital projects and building permits are going down. The only thing holding it up will be the government’s contracts,” Stick said.

Non-residential construction could receive a boost this year with more permits expected for the F.H. Collins Secondary School replacement in Whitehorse, ongoing development of the city’s newest subdivision — Whistle Bend — and possible new mine development across the Yukon.

Last year, retail sales fell three per cent to about $650 million, the first annual decline since 2009.

Economic Development foresees 2014 sales nudging above last year’s, however, with higher consumer prices contributing to the expected growth.

The Yukon’s population is expected to continue to grow this year, exceeding 37,000.

Total employment averaged 19,300 in 2013, an increase that could drive down the jobless rate to five per cent if it holds strong as predicted.

Border crossings are estimated to have grown by eight per cent to a record 346,000 in 2013, with 350,000 predicted for 2014. The figures do not distinguish between tourists and residents.

Stick approved of the tourism numbers — though not any government role in bolstering them.

“The one constant that we’ve seen is tourism, but that is not a basket the government has put its eggs in,” she said, citing a supposed lack of funding for advertisements promoting the Yukon across Canada and abroad.

“It’s all about mining, but in fact this report shows that it’s not all about mining,” she added.

Alexco’s Bellekeno mine, which also produces lead and zinc, closed temporarily last fall because of a major slump in a once-sterling market.

More than 140 Alexco and contract employees were laid off, with unrealized hopes of returning to work if silver prices rise.

The government’s brighter outlook last fall assumed that Alexco would reopen its Bellekeno operation in the spring and that the Wolverine Mine would rehire all the workers it laid off, Hanson said last September.

The Wolverine Mine has boosted production since that statement, but Alexco has indicated it doesn’t plan to restart production until the new year.

Meanwhile, there are also no guarantees that the Eagle Gold mine project will start construction in 2014.

“There is uncertainty related to development activities in 2015,” Economic Development states in its report. “The beginning of development of the Eagle Gold mine, with an estimated development cost of about $400 million, could result in substantial spending in 2015.”

The Victoria Gold Corp., which owns the operation, has said it expects to obtain a water licence in early 2015 and start construction in 2015, continuing into 2016.

Those activities depend on the company raising the necessary capital to move ahead with development.

Mineral exploration spending in the Yukon last year was down 70 per cent from 2012, according to territorial government records.

About $45 million spent in 2013 measures up poorly to the $150 million put out in 2012, itself just half of the $300 million spent in 2011.

Last year’s expenditures are the lowest since 2005, when the exploration and mining industry began to emerge from the doldrums of the late 1990s and early 2000s.