Following a bottom-of-the-barrel economic performance in 2013, the Yukon saw modest growth in 2014.

As well, there are much brighter prospects on the horizon for this year, according to recent figures from the Conference Board of Canada.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to nudge up by 1.4 per cent, an improvement over the 2013 decline by nearly a full percentage point — giving the Yukon the worst showing of any province or territory in Canada in 2013.

High hopes for Victoria Gold’s Eagle mine, meanwhile, are the main driver behind the board’s prediction of 6.6 per cent GDP growth for 2015.

Mineral production, spurred by potentially higher production at the Minto and Wolverine mines, is also expected to rise modestly through 2016.

Justin Cooke, an economist with the conference board, noted recently the lingering uncertainty around progress on the Eagle gold deposit and its impact on economic expansion.

“That’s the biggest downside risk, is if Victoria Gold delays their project,” he said in an interview.

Much of the project’s prospects depend on how much money from investors the company will be able to raise this year in pursuing its plans.

Yukoners in construction, transportation and professional services all stand to gain from a fast start to the mine, Cooke said.

That depends largely on investor willingness, rather than permit approvals, he added: “They’re what’s called shovel-ready.”

Cooke stressed several variables could yield alternate GDP numbers this year, “especially right now, with mineral prices in flux and a downward trend over the past two years.”

The price of copper has dipped on the international market over the past few months.

But zinc “has really bounced back since about May,” meaning Yukon Zinc’s Wolverine Mine could ramp up its capacity.

It has been operating at about 75 per cent for the past year.

“One of the big drivers in growth in the Yukon over the past few years has been not only producing mines, but also the exploration industry,” Cooke noted.

Exploration spending peaked in 2011, when it exceeded $300 million. It plunged over the next two years, landing at $45 million in 2013 — with further drops expected.

“With mineral prices in fluctuation, we don’t really expect a huge bounce-back in exploration over the next few years,” he said.

“There are still a number of really promising projects in the territory, but their potential is more in the longer term — four or five years away —whereas a few years ago, the outlook for new mining projects was much more promising than it is today.”

Cooke highlighted the twin economic pillars of government and tourism — one robust, the other crumbling slightly.

“One of the strengths is continuing investment by the public sector,” he said.

This fiscal year saw the largest budget in the territory’s history — $1.3 billion — including the longest capital projects list, which totalled nearly $300 million.

“A lot of that is going into infrastructure, highways, a new school (F.H. Collins Secondary, with more than $54 million allotted so far) and the Yukon Housing Corp.”

Cooke also pointed to the planned continuing care facility, a massive, 300-bed building slated for completion in 2018 in the Whistle Bend subdivision.

A renewed focus on health care investment and spending can be expected in the decades ahead as the territory’s median age inches upward, he added.

Tourism numbers were down slightly in 2014, according to preliminary reports.

“The data’s not out yet so some of the driving factors aren’t quite as apparent, but we do expect a rebound in tourism next year,” Cooke said.

Across the North, the economic outlook for Canada’s territories looks bright as 2015 dawns, despite the ongoing slump this year.

The GDP accelerated from 1.5 per cent in 2014 to 5.3 per cent due to stronger investment in mining, according to the conference board’s Territorial Outlook autumn edition.

In 2016, economic growth is forecast to ease to 2.4 per cent.

“While the current financing environment is not conducive to rapid expansion of mining projects in the territories, prospects for the medium to long term are generally positive,” said Marie-Christine Bernard, an associate director with the conference board.

“The business case for many of the mining projects in the North in the medium to long-term remains good; demand for minerals will grow as the world economy continues to claw its way back from the 2008-09 financial crisis and recession.”

In the Northwest Territories, construction work on several new mines and public investment could drive GDP growth from 1.4 per cent in 2014 to 3.6 per cent in 2015, according to conference board figures.

Released just over a month ago, they also indicate the wholesale and retail trade as well as financial services will boost the economy east of the Mackenzie Mountains.

Stronger diamond production will likely help the the territory’s economy, but prospects for more work on the Canol shale oil play have dimmed due to an exploration hiatus this winter.

Nunavut’s economy in 2015 is expected to grow by 6.8 per cent — up from the 1.9 per cent forecast for 2014.

Over the next few years, Nunavut will likely see a number of mining projects advance to the construction stage as some projects, like the Mary River project, move into production and others progress.

Smaller areas of the economy, such as the fishing industry, are also expected to grow in 2015.

The Territorial Outlook, published twice yearly, examines the economic and fiscal outlook for each of the territories, including output by industry, labour market conditions, and the demographic make-up.

The forecast is funded through the conference board’s Centre for the North.