It's most likely the Southern Lakes will reach flood levels later this summer, says the Yukon's expert on flood forecasts.

Hydrologist Ric Janowicz of Environment Yukon said Thursday the current pace of the rising lake levels will most likely slow down, as snowmelt from lower elevations washes through the system.

The Southern Lakes, however, are affected most by glacial melt and the amount of summer rain, he pointed out.

Janowicz said exactly how far above flood levels the water will rise is difficult to pinpoint, though he plans on building a projection model in the next couple of days.

It's fairly certain the levels will rise at least as high as 2004 when they hit the flood stage, he said.

Janowicz said the disastrous flood waters of 2007 peaked about a metre higher than 2004.

The Yukon government's flood watch report issued Tuesday afternoon indicated the Southern Lakes were 1.3 metres below the flood stage, but rising 10 centimetres per day.

Janowicz said the rise will likely slow to five centimetres or fewer per day.

High water in the region doesn't usually occur until August, he pointed out.

Flood problems across southern Yukon so far this year are being blamed on an above-average snowpack in the mountains and more spring rain than normal.

Janowicz said the Southern Lakes are mostly affected by glacial melt related to temperatures, and then rain.

In 2007, the southern Yukon was basking in above-average temperatures through July.