Poll gives MP a huge lead

As popular support for the territory's ruling party took a nose dive this summer, those behind Yukon MP Larry Bagnell are surging, according to a DataPath Systems poll released Friday.

As popular support for the territory’s ruling party took a nose dive this summer, those behind Yukon MP Larry Bagnell are surging, according to a DataPath Systems poll released Friday.

Among decided voters, 54 per cent would support Bagnell if a federal election were held tomorrow, compared to 22 per cent for Darrell Pasloski, the failed Conservative candidate in last October’s election.

Bagnell’s approval rating climbed seven per cent while support for Pasloski dropped five per cent between a March poll and the one conducted last week. Green Party support edged up one percentage point to 16 while the NDP was down two points to just nine per
cent.

Both Bagnell and Pasloski told the Star they don’t comment on polls, but offered different takes on what could be influencing voters.

“I can just say that I’ve been working on a number of local issues, the CBC transmitter, making sure tourism and mining are doing well ... these things that affect a lot of Yukoners,” said Bagnell.

From Pasloski’s perspective, the controversy surrounding the Peel River watershed, the Yukon Energy Corp. and the territorial government’s handling of those issues could be reflected in the recent poll results.

“I would assume some of the territorial stuff might have some influence on that polling and that it probably has an impact (on people’s perceptions) federally,” Pasloski said. “There’s a chance that is what’s happening territorially.”

After riding an all-time high in the polls this past spring, support for the territory’s ruling Yukon Party dropped 14 per cent, and it now trails the Opposition Liberals.

Results from a June 20 DataPath Systems poll put the Liberals ahead with 34 per cent support, while support for the Yukon Party is down to 33 per cent from 47 per cent in April.

DataPath Systems pollster Donna Larsen said the connection between territorial and federal politics can be tenuous but did not rule out the influence of one over the other.

“Prior to the last election, I thought there was a very strong connection between territorial politics and federal… and it didn’t hold really tight, but I think there is still an element in that,” said Larsen. “Here we see a drop in Yukon Party popularity at the same time we see a drop in (Prime Minister) Stephen Harper’s popularity.”

Larsen went on to note Bagnell’s visibility amongst voters in the territory and that support for Bagnell often trumps that of his party affiliation.

“(Voting in the Yukon) follows with national trends but never to the extent of national polls,” Larsen said. “Just because there’s such a strong connection to Larry rather than the party. When you get right down to it, people are voting for Larry.”

The most recent national poll available was released by EKOS Research Associates on July 9. It gives Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals less than half a percentage point lead against Harper’s Conservatives; 32.2 per cent for the Liberals, 31.8 per cent Conservatives. That same poll gave 16 per cent support to the federal NDP while the Greens sit at 10.7 per cent. Support for the Bloc Quebecois is less than 10 per cent.

And such a close deadlock on the leader board will continue to be a factor in mitigating either the Liberal or Conservative parties’ desire for an election, according to Bagnell.

“I don’t think Canadians want to go to the polls unless there’s going to be a change ... right now, no party would get a clear majority and an election could go either way, or we could get the exact same thing we have now” he said. “There will have to be momentum gathered by one of the parties and that would more than likely precipitate one.”

Pasloski, who has made no commitment at another federal run despite maintaining a visible presence at Conservative events in the territory, passed on making any general election predictions.

“The fever kind of goes up and goes down since I’ve been involved in early 2007,” he said. “And the election threat level has been close a number of times before we actually had an election called.”

While the more than 45 per cent of Yukon voters marked Bagnell on their ballots in the October 2008 federal election compared to 33 per cent for Pasloski, the Conservatives bolstered their minority government by 19 seats.