Conservatives’ slide dragging down Pasloski, polling finds

The Conservative Party in the territory is being hit hard by Yukoners' reactions to global economic woes, a survey has found.

The Conservative Party in the territory is being hit hard by Yukoners’ reactions to global economic woes, a survey has found.

Support for Conservative Party candidate Darrell Pasloski in Tuesday’s federal election has dropped from 34 per cent in mid-September to 27 per cent by yesterday, the poll has discovered.

The survey was conducted by DataPath Systems, an independent Yukon-based market research company.

The results, released today, show Liberal incumbent Larry Bagnell is holding steady with 47 per cent of decided voters opting for him. This has been steady since early 2008, DataPath said.

In third place is the Green Party’s John Streicker, with 15 per cent of the voters (up from 14 per cent last month).

The NDP jumped from five per cent (shortly after announcing a candidate) to 11 per cent of respondents now siding with Ken Bolton.

Telephone surveys were conducted with 199 Whitehorse residents and 105 non-Whitehorse residents Oct. 4-9.

The results for Pasloski follow with other national polls that have similarly seen the Conservative Party declining in the last week.

A Simon Fraser University report comparing seven national polls which took place at about the same time periods as the DataPath polling shows how the Conservative Party across Canada dropped six percentage points, from an average of 39 per cent to an average of 33 per cent support by Wednesday of this week.

Yukon poll respondents’ support for the Conservative Party experienced a similar seven per cent drop.

“I am a bit surprised by this, actually, since the Yukon tends to follow national politics a bit less closely than other Canadians do,” said DataPath partner Donna Larsen.

“But in this election, the events impacting Canada are significant and seem to be getting Yukoners’ attention.”

The connection to national events is seen more clearly when looking at the approval ratings for Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

In September, 51 per cent of Yukoners approved of the job he was doing. Now, that has dropped to 41 per cent approving, while 50 per cent disapprove.

In September, 53 per cent felt Harper is the best leader for Canada. That has dipped to 45 per cent.

“The reason that Mr. Pasloski is taking the biggest drop here is his close association with the federal Conservative Party,” said Larsen.

“Yukoners who are planning to vote for Darrell are primarily doing so because of what they feel his party can do for Canada.

“In both September and October, about 75 per cent of Pasloski supporters were there because of his party. Therefore, when the party starts to drop, there is a large share of his supporters who start to waver.”

Polling found that Bagnell, conversely, was much less connected to national influences, Larsen said, “as only 25 per cent of his supporters were there for national reasons. Seventy-five per cent of his supporters were there because of what they felt Larry could do for the Yukon.”

In September, 53 per cent of those Yukoners who were voting based on national leadership were planning to endorse Pasloski.

Today, that number has fallen to only 37 per cent.

“This shows that among voters who are voting for the national party, they are moving away from the Conservative Party,” said Larsen.

“This, combined with the NDP getting a candidate in the field, has added to the shift in voter preferences.”

There are some demographic differences among the candidates, Larsen said.

Those voting Conservative tend to have higher incomes, and are slightly older and slightly more often male, compared to other candidate’s supporters.

Some demographic differences show that rural Yukon residents are equally likely to be voting Conservative (27 per cent) or Green (13 per cent) compared to Whitehorse residents, but less likely voting Liberal (39 per cent in rural communities vs. 49 per cent in Whitehorse) and more likely to vote NDP (21 per cent vs. eight per cent).

Compared to men, women have a higher propensity to vote either NDP (15 per cent of women vs. seven per cent of men) or Green (19 per cent of women vs. 11 per cent of men).

The older the voter, the greater the likelihood to vote either Conservative or Liberal, DataPath’s polling found.

Employment also is a factor. Among those who work, government employees had a higher share supporting the Green Party at 20 per cent vs. 11 per cent among those in the private sector.

Of the Yukon candidates, only Streicker could be reached before press time this afternoon to comment on the survey. He said he’s pleased with the one per cent boost in his fortunes.

There had been concerns around the previous poll that there could be strategic voting in the territory, he said. A number of voters have told him though they’d like to support him, they were parking their vote with Bagnell due to concerns around the government that could be elected.

“Now that it’s not as emanate, we think we could go up,” Streicker said.

While he said he supports a voter’s democratic choice to vote strategically, he also tells those he speaks to that he and his party encourage the electorate to vote with their conscience rather than casting a ballot based on which party they don’t want to win.

Streicker has also encouraged voters to check out all four platforms of the candidates in the territory before they cast their ballot with the belief that the Green Party platform makes the most sense.

The polling data are weighted to accurately represent Yukoners based on the community they live in, their age and gender.

Percentages are statistically valid to +/- 5.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20 (95 per cent confidence).

The poll was based on non-commissioned sections of the study, paid for by DataPath.