The Yukon’s economy is expected to plateau in 2017 and 2018, according to forecasts included in the territory’s 2017-18 budget.

After modest growth in 2016, the territory’s real GDP is expected to plateau in 2017 and 2018, as production winds down at the Minto Mine.

However, the economy is projected to perk up, growing by 2.6 per cent in 2019, when the Eagle Gold mine goes online.

Real GDP (gross domestic product) represents the market value of all the goods and services produced within a specified region over a certain period of time, and adjusted for inflation.

For the time being, the territory’s GDP “remains very much linked to the performance of the Yukon’s mining sector,” says the Yukon Economic Outlook, released April 27.

After two consecutive years of decline, the Yukon’s real GDP by industry in 2016 went up an estimated 4.6 per cent from 2015, to $2.295 billion.

This rise exceeds predictions from May, in which growth was pegged at 2.8 per cent in 2016.

Local mineral production is expected to be stronger in 2017 than was predicted in the May 2016 Economic Outlook.

That’s mainly because Capstone Mining Corp. has said it will continue production at the Minto Mine through to the end of the year.

After 2016’s slight uptick, the Yukon’s real GDP is projected to essentially flatline for the next two years, growing by 0.1 in 2017 and 0.2 per cent in 2018.

The anticipated plateau is, however, a positive development considering last May’s forecasts had the territory’s economy contracting 5.7 per cent in 2017.

The Yukon’s economy is expected to get a little jolt in 2019, as Eagle Gold begins production, and as spending starts on the Coffee project.

Real GDP growth of 2.6 per cent is predicted for 2019.

Last year marked the 13th consecutive year of population growth in the territory, according to the report’s estimates.

The population is estimated to have risen 1.4 per cent, or by 515 people since 2015, bringing the 2016 population to 37,858.

The Yukon population is projected to reach 39,300 in 2019.

Whitehorse continues to be home for more than three quarters of Yukoners. An estimated 29,258 people resided in the city in 2016.

Whitehorse, Dawson and Teslin each experienced population increases in 2016, with the capital growing the most, by an estimated 386 people.

Dawson grew by an estimated 91 people and Teslin by 27, in 2016.

At about 5.6 per cent in 2016, the Yukon’s unemployment rate was the lowest in the country. Canada’s average unemployment rate was about seven per cent in 2016.

Employment and the overall workforce are expected to continue growing through 2019, with an average unemployment rate of six per cent predicted over those years.

While it’s difficult to measure tourism precisely, a number of indicators suggest the Yukon’s tourism industry performed well in 2016.

More people passed through Erik Nielsen Whitehorse International Airport in 2016, with arrivals up 8.6 per cent from the year prior.

The Canadian Tourism Research Institute estimates that Yukon tourism sector revenues in 2016 were up 5.1 per cent from 2015.

This would be the third-highest increase in Canada, behind B.C. (6.5 per cent) and P.E.I. (5.4 per cent).

Spending associated with overnight visits to the territory also increased in 2016, up an estimated 6.7 per cent from 2015, to $303 million.

“For both overnight visitation and the spending associated with these stays, Yukon’s gains outpace Canadian growth,” says the economic report.

Recent changes to the direction of U.S. policy on travel, immigration, and trade have caused “significant concern” around the globe, and may discourage international travel to the States, says the report.

“This, along with Canada’s reputation as a safe travel destination resonating with overseas travellers, could bode well for travel to Canada, and possibly Yukon.”